Italian exports are seeking new routes: anticipating the geographical areas of growth is becoming the real competitive advantage

Global trade is not coming to a standstill. Its geography is changing. Despite geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers and rising US tariffs, international trade has shown greater resilience than expected. The DHL Globalisation Tracker, published by DHL in collaboration with the Stern School of Business at New York University based on over 30 million data points, analyses international flows of trade, capital, information and people, offering one of the most comprehensive analyses of globalisation available today. It shows how, in 2025, globalisation reached a record level of 25.8 per cent. Goods travelled, on average, longer distances than in any other year on record. This is a sign that value chains, rather than shortening, are reshaping their connections.

For Italia, which is heavily integrated into international markets, this change raises a strategic issue. 2025 ended with a trade surplus of 50.7 billion euros and export growth of 3.3 per cent, driven entirely by trade with non-EU countries. The first seven months of 2026 also confirmed this trend, with exports up by 4.6 per cent compared with the same period the previous year and, in July, growth to non-EU markets (+6.6 per cent) was more than double that recorded within the EU (+2.7 per cent).

The issue, however, is not merely about reducing dependence on traditional markets. Germany, the United States and France continue to be key destinations for ‘Made in Italy’ products and, in 2025, together accounted for almost a third of Italian exports. But whilst these relationships remain central, other parts of the world are gaining in importance and opening up new opportunities for businesses capable of identifying them before they become mature markets.

This is where the ability to analyse global trade flows becomes a competitive advantage. For an operator such as DHL Express, which connects over 220 countries and territories, the daily monitoring of goods crossing borders and continents offers a unique perspective on the changes taking place. The challenge is to transform this knowledge into a tool for businesses: not to wait until a crisis makes it necessary to seek alternatives, but to understand in advance where new demand trends, new supply chains and new opportunities are emerging. This is the rationale behind LET’S GO TRADE! – The world is changing course, trade is redrawing the map: this is the project through which DHL Express Italy, with the support of Confindustria and under the patronage of Assolombarda, aims to help businesses navigate the new international landscape.

These new maps do not, however, point in a single direction. Data from ExPAnD, the export analysis platform developed by Confindustria in partnership with Il Sole 24 Ore, shows just how diverse the opportunities are emerging in the markets towards which Italian businesses are shifting their focus.

India, for example, is already a destination worth 5.5 billion euros for Italian exports, but its enormous population should not be confused with an equally vast market for imported goods. The most solid opportunities lie in the industrial and B2B sectors, starting with the mechanical engineering sector, which alone accounts for over €2.1 billion in Italian exports. It is still a largely open market, but one in which specialisation, commercial presence and the ability to build long-term relationships count for more than the mere strength of the ‘Made in Italy’ label.

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are following a different trajectory. Italian exports are already worth approximately 6 and 9.3 billion euros respectively, and meet a demand that is particularly well-aligned with the output of our manufacturing sector. Mechanical engineering, chemicals and capital goods, as well as food, fashion and more aspirational products, are finding significant market opportunities, provided that the market is maintained consistently and segments and channels are carefully selected. In the UAE, in particular, the alignment between local demand and Italian supply exceeds 95 per cent, according to ExPAnD: a figure that highlights the depth of the opportunities, but also the need to compete on quality, specialisation and service rather than on price.

Latin America also presents significant opportunities, though these are not uniform. Brazil already imports 5.6 billion euros’ worth of Italian products and offers opportunities primarily in industrial sectors: mechanical engineering, chemicals, components and capital goods. Argentina is on a smaller scale and presents a more selective landscape, but still offers scope for companies capable of providing technology, specialist solutions and long-term support. In both cases, the size of the country alone is not enough to define its potential: it is necessary to examine in detail the demand that is actually accessible and the sectors in which Italia has a competitive advantage.

The same applies to Turkey, a gateway between Europe and Asia and a market to which Italia already exports €13.5 billion, with a particularly strong presence in precision engineering and various manufacturing sectors. And it applies to China, which remains one of the world’s most potentially important markets for Italian companies, but increasingly demands a selective approach: distinctive technology, strong brands, specialisation and the ability to directly serve segments in which the Italian premium price tag is genuinely justified.

The common thread is therefore not the search for a new market destined to replace an old one. It is the building of a broader geographical portfolio, capable of tapping into areas that are growing rapidly, each with different specialisations and demand patterns. This interpretation is also reflected in SACE’s Export Report 2026, which identifies 16 strategic countries – from China to India, from the United Arab Emirates to Mexico, from Vietnam to Morocco – on which to focus, not least to support the objective of raising Italian exports to 700 billion euros.

Anticipating these transformations, however, requires access to data, expertise and connections that SMEs, in particular, would struggle to build on their own. It is this need that LET’S GO TRADE! addresses, conceived not as a one-off event but as a growth platform for Italian companies: regional events, workshops, webinars, content, market data and networking opportunities through which to pool knowledge, skills and relationships.

The immersive experience, which took place on 8 and 9 October 2026 in Milan at the Areapergolesi Events venue, brought this approach to life through a narrative combining data, testimonials, in-depth analysis of high-potential markets and multi-sensory stimuli. It was a way of making tangible a transformation that is often only perceived once its effects are already evident: new trade routes, supply chains being reshaped, countries gaining prominence, and opportunities opening up whilst others become more complex.

For Italian businesses, therefore, diversification means more than simply spreading risk. It means building today the relationships that will support tomorrow’s growth. And it is in this area that DHL Express aims to expand its role: not merely as an international transport operator, but as a partner capable of making its global network, market knowledge and insight into trade flows available to help companies anticipate change before it becomes apparent.

Because in a world where the maps of trade are constantly being redrawn, the advantage lies not merely in knowing how to adapt to a new route. It lies in being able to identify it before others do.

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