Italian fashion slows down: in 2024 it will return below 100 billion (-3.5%)

The warning signs are there, and have been there for some time: the slowdown of the luxury giants (Kering, but also Lvmh), the drop in consumption in China, the rising cost of logistics due to the conflict in the Middle East, and the cost of energy and raw materials still affected by the ongoing war in Ukraine. And, again: the still high cost of money, geopolitical tensions linked both to the aforementioned conflicts and to a series of key political elections, from the European elections last June to the American ones in November. Now there is also confirmation in numbers: according to the Fashion economic trends released by the National Chamber of Italian Fashion (Cnmi), Italian fashion, enlarged to include related sectors such as eyewear and beauty, will close 2024 at 97.7 billion euros in revenues, a 3.5% drop compared to 2023. And back below 100 billion euro in value revenues.

The so-called 'core' sectors in particular suffered: textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods recorded a drop in turnover of 10% in Q1 and 6.7% in Q2. The related sectors (beauty, eyewear, jewellery and costume jewellery), on the other hand, recorded growth in the two quarters analysed (+4.9% and +3.2%), partially offsetting the decline in the core sectors.

"This moment is critical, we all know that there are wars in key areas of the world, that consumption in China has dropped due to the real estate crisis, but the outlook for Italian fashion is one of growth: we expect it to grow by 20% in five years. We must show resilience for a period of 12 to 18 months and work for the solidity of a system in which everyone is needed, big brands and small companies,' explained Carlo Capasa, president of Camera moda. 'This is why we went to the Fashion Table at Mimit on 6 August to ask for a series of measures to protect SMEs first and foremost: a moratorium on loans, ordinary redundancy funds for companies with fewer than 15 employees. And it seems that the government is already at work on these fronts'.

The idea is to keep point while waiting for consumption to restart in some key areas, such as China and the United States. Exports, in fact, despite the complex international situation, continue to drive the Made in Italy accounts: in the first five months of the year, exports increased by 5.1% and, according to FET, by the end of 2024 they will reach the threshold of 94 billion euro, an increase of 5.5% compared to 2023. This figure indicates that it is precisely the domestic market (including B2B, thinking for example of textiles, which is suffering greatly) that is experiencing the worst period. A situation that is also clear from the drop (-1.4%) in imports. On a positive note, EUR 46.1 billion of trade surplus comes from growing exports, compared to shrinking imports, a good EUR 14 billion more than in 2019. Here again, we can see the substantial difference between the performance of the core sectors, where exports fell by 2.8% in the first five months, thanks to a -55% drop in Switzerland (logistics hub of the luxury groups), and the related sectors, which instead recorded almost +30%, driven by the boom in jewellery (+58%) and thanks to record exports to Turkey, but also the Emirates, Spain and the United Kingdom. "Globally, there is a strong demand for Made in Italy products linked to the world of fashion, which must be grasped and developed precisely because the fashion system is the one that contributes more than others to consolidating the image of Italy's excellence abroad," said Lorenzo Galanti, Ice's managing director. The geopolitical context characterised by political instability and the effects of conflicts on supply chains and logistics requires a strong ability to adapt and agility, aspects typical of Made in Italy companies and entrepreneurs, in order to react and seize opportunities in markets with the best prospects and where demand is growing. Sustainability and innovation are strengths of Italian companies in the sector that can make the difference in performance on foreign markets'.

In this context, the importance of the appointments that, from mid-September, will take place in Milan to promote the spring-summer 2025 collections increases. Leading the way is Milan Fashion Week, which in this edition, lengthened by one day thanks to a complex (and lengthy) work to adjust international calendars, will include 173 appointments of which 57 physical fashion shows, 8 digital shows, 75 presentations and 33 events. Fashion Week will begin on 17 September with the opening of the Cnmi Fashion Hub at Palazzo Giureconsulti, conceived as a showcase for young designers, and will 'physically' close on Sunday 22 September with the Cnmi Fashion Sustainable Awards 2024 event at Teatro alla Scala, during which a number of best practices in sustainable and socially responsible fashion will be awarded. 23 September will instead be dedicated to eight digital shows, including those of Husky, Chiara Boni and Jacob Cohen.