Exports: Italia up 53 per cent in ten years – outperforming its European rivals
According to Gregorio De Felice, Chief Economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, the value of Italian exports of manufactured goods rose by 216 billion between 2015 and 2025, roughly double the increase recorded in the previous decade
Italian manufacturing exports grew by 53 per cent between 2016 and 2025, at current prices, outperforming Germany (+33.3 per cent), France (+34.7 per cent) and Spain (+51.4 per cent). This is one of the figures presented in Intesa Sanpaolo’s analysis, which formed the focus of the speech given by Gregorio De Felice, the Group’s Chief Economist, at the Bergamo Business Festival, during the session entitled ‘The Industry That Endures’.
The value of Italian exports of manufactured goods rose by €216 billion between 2015 and 2025, roughly double the increase recorded in the previous decade (€109 billion between 2005 and 2015). In 2025, exports of manufactured goods reached €611.4 billion, whilst the total value of Italian exports stood at €643.2 billion.
Gregorio De Felice stated: “Over the last twenty-five years, Italia has significantly strengthened its presence on international markets, with the export ratio rising from 25.6 per cent in 2000 to 31.6 per cent in 2025. The performance of the manufacturing sector has been particularly significant: between 2016 and 2025, exports grew by 53 per cent, more than in the other major European countries. This result confirms the competitiveness of our production system, which is based on the quality of our products, our capacity for innovation and the contribution of small and medium-sized enterprises. At a time marked by geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs, it will be essential to continue investing in technology and skills and to diversify our export markets.”
Exports to remain steady in 2026, but with differences between sectors
In the first eight months of 2026, Italian exports rose by 5 per cent at current prices compared with the same period in 2025. The trade balance reached €34.7 billion, buoyed by the manufacturing surplus (€82.9 billion), which more than offset the energy deficit. Sectors showing growth included metals (+26.4 per cent), the automotive sector (+10.4 per cent) and electronics (+5.9 per cent); the furniture sector declined (−5.8 per cent).
Inflation at 3.3 per cent in 2026; innovation is key to competitiveness
Growth is being held back by energy pressures and inflation, which, according to De Felice’s forecasts, is expected to stand at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 2.9 per cent in 2027. Italian GDP performed better than expected in the first half of 2026, before entering a period of stagnation during the summer. On the structural front, 69.2 per cent of firms in the manufacturing sector engaged in innovative activities during the period 2022–2024: this is one of the areas to focus on to support international competitiveness.
