Italy will produce 20% more wheat in 2025

Good news for the 2025 durum wheat campaign in Italy: after a declining 2024, this year's national production is expected to be over 4.2 million tonnes, 20% more than last year. The data will be presented today in Foggia during the Durum Days, attended by Assosementi, Cia-Agricoltori italiani, Confagricoltura, Copagri, Fedagripesca Confcooperative, Compag, Italmopa, Unionfood, Crea and Areté.

The increase in Italy's production of durum wheat - the one used to make pasta - is linked both to the expansion of cultivated areas, up 9.5% nationally according to Istat, and to particularly favourable conditions in Sicily, Basilicata and parts of Puglia. For the world of farmers, the increase in the national harvest is good news: "Even more than the 20% increase over the last campaign, which was not a happy one, the real good news is that this year's harvest will be 12% more than the average recorded over the last five years," explains Raffaele Drei, president of Fedagripesca Confcooperative. According to whom, however, the conditional is still a must: "The harvest still has a long way to go, a good month and a half in which heat waves or heavy rainfall can change the picture in a negative way. Let's say that we remain optimistic,' he says.

The 2025 campaign initially got off to a difficult start. According to Crea, in the Centre-North sowing was delayed due to heavy rains, and in some areas water stagnation made subsequent agronomic practices difficult. In the South, sowing operations were also delayed, in this case due to the lack of rain in November. And although above-average winter temperatures accelerated the cycle, regular rainfall eventually favoured crop growth.

If the outlook for the Italian harvest is one of growth, the international picture so far seems less rosy. According to Areté, after the increase recorded last year, durum wheat production worldwide is expected to fall due to lower harvests in North American exporting countries, which would not be compensated by higher production in importing countries. In particular, yields in Canada are expected to fall by 7%, in the US by 9% and in Mexico by as much as 78%.

With such a picture - Italian production growing and world harvests falling slightly - everything would point to an increase in domestic wheat prices. "We are still in an initial phase," says Drei, "but Italian farmers can expect prices to recover. For too long in our country we have been experiencing a fall in quotations that is beginning to be difficult to justify. Prices today are at a level that risks calling into question the very sustainability of wheat cultivation'.