Italy-EU, after Meloni's no to von der Leyen uphill confrontation on commissioner and delegations

Ursula von der Leyen has won the most difficult game, that of re-election. But one of the most difficult jobs awaits her in the coming months: the composition of the new Commission. The former German Defence Minister already showed some creativity in the past legislature in designing the structure she will head. The commissioners, who are in fact the ministers of the European executive, will also in the next five years reflect the agenda that von der Leyen outlined to the European Parliament. With significant novelties. One above all, a Commissioner for Industry and Competitiveness who will be crucial in the architecture of the Berlaymont Palace. Among the novelties the re-elected president has in mind are also three brand new portfolios: Housing, Bureaucratisation and Mediterranean. The latter two are areas that Giorgia Meloni has often emphasised, including in the Ecr group meeting with von der Leyen.

The feeling in Strasbourg, especially after the vote against by FdI, is that Italy may be handed one of the two delegations. The first will focus on implementation, simplification and inter-institutional relations and will have, von der Leyen stressed, the rank of (non-executive) vice-presidency. It will broadly reflect the role hitherto held by Maros Sefcovic (who has the delegation for inter-institutional relations), while it is unclear whether the chapter on the NRP will also be added to the areas of responsibility. The Commissioner for the Mediterranean, on the other hand, will work closely with the High Representative for Foreign Policy. In describing his tasks von der Leyen seems to have taken a cue from the Mattei Plan, talking about partnerships, economic stability of the region, energy and migration. A strategic commissioner, in short. But which, in substance, risks having less incisiveness than the more traditional ones.

For Italy, in short, the game is becoming complex. The objective remains that of obtaining a heavy portfolio, as a great country should, to be entrusted to the very trustworthy Raffaele Fitto , who remains the main candidate to move to Brussels, even if the name of a woman will also have to be indicated. In short, there would not be, in the narrative of the Melonians, the risks feared by the oppositions of having put Italy in a corner, in an irrelevant position. But an executive vice presidency now seems destined for France and Thierry Breton, who could be given the delegation for Industry and Competitiveness. Defence could be unbundled and, according to the latest rumours, could end up in the hands of the Lithuanian Gabrielius Landsbergis although, with Kaja Kallas in the role of Josep Borrell, the risk is that of 'Balticising' the Foreign-Defence sector too much. The Spanish Teresa Ribera is in pole for the Energy box, to which the climate dossier could be added: assigning the Iberian Green Deal champion the role of executive vice-president could be Ursula's reward for the - decisive - support of the Greens.

Agriculture (from which Fisheries could be spun off) will be a complicated portfolio, and seems to be in the balance between Portugal and Poland. Romania is aiming at Economic Affairs or Enlargement. The Luxembourger Nicolas Schmit, Spitzenkandidat of the Socialists, could have the delegation to Housing but there is an obstacle: in government, in the small Benelux State, there are the Populars. The EPP commissioners, in any case, would be in the majority: thirteen out of 27. Von der Leyen expects names from the governments within the next few weeks. They will have to be a man and a woman, as the president on perfect gender equality does not allow for exceptions.

Talks with the number one at the Berlaymont Palace will start in mid-August. Ursula's dream is to have a full Commission in November. Not easy, but not impossible either.