Italy will need 3.6 million new houses in 2050

To meet future housing demand, an estimated 3.65 million new homes will have to be built over the next 25 years, mainly the result of transformations and reconversions, concentrated in the main metropolitan areas of the Peninsula: almost 5% in Milan, 3% in Rome and about 1% in the other main capitals, a threefold increase if we add their extended metropolitan areas (between 42 and 45% of the new supply).
More than one thousand billion euro will be needed for construction investments, plus 4.2 billion per year for the subsequent maintenance of the structures. Of the houses built, about 42% will have to offer services to the inhabitants, heterogeneous and qualified, this will mean for investors and developers additional allocations of more than 50 billion, between 8 and 11% of the house cost. The largest share will have to be concentrated in Milan (EUR 39 billion invested), followed by Rome with more than EUR 26 billion. The resulting real estate value potentially created in Italy will exceed 1,400 billion euro, of which 165 billion in Milan (12% of the total), 138 billion in Rome and 4.7 billion in Palermo.

This is what emerges from the Report "The home for the city of the future", produced by Scenari Immobiliari in collaboration with Investire Sgr, presented during the 32nd Scenari Forum held in Rapallo.

"In the 32nd edition of the Forum Scenari," says Francesca Zirnstein, general manager of Scenari Immobiliari, "we have returned to investigate the theme of housing, considering how housing needs will change due to the continuous and unstoppable mutation of the population, in relation to future needs and the possibilities of market development for investors. Within the Report we have constructed a matrix capable of identifying, for each in-depth city, the level of desirability in relation to the different types of residential demand that emerged from our research. This element can become a functional tool for future investment hypotheses within the residential market. Each residential category identified, which will respond to a specific demand target, will make up the overall offer of the different capitals".

"The Report highlighted how the continuous and unstoppable change of the population is leading to new needs and requirements of the end user. Operators in the real estate sector will have to be able to cope with the evolution of residential demand, which is moving towards increasing specialisation, a greater focus on services, and a gradual increase in rented housing. Investire SGR has already begun to interpret these new requirements," comments Michele Beolchini, head of product development and fundraising, integrating its residential offering. And it is doing so by targeting the categories that are most in need today: the so-called 'grey' segment of the population, through the social housing fund system; students, through the iGeneration student housing platform; and senior housing, with the recent launch of 'Spazio Blu', dedicated to residential rental housing with integrated services dedicated to the psycho-physical wellbeing of self-sufficient people over 65".

As emerges from the Report by Scenari Immobiliari and Investire Sgr, Milan, and Bologna and Rome will be characterised by the strong pressure exerted by the future university population and young professionals, increasing their level of attractiveness with respect to student housing, micro-living and coliving development operations, which will cover a slice of the market still lacking a specific product. The two northern Italian capitals are also those economically and culturally most ready for the diffusion of specific housing solutions for the over 75 population, despite the fact that in Italy this type of housing is still underdeveloped compared to other European territories.