'Confidence of SMEs falls, in Italy more than in the rest of the EU'

Even before the Cyclone dazi, the confidence of Italian small and medium-sized enterprises was already in sharp decline. More than the rest of Europe. With gloomy forecasts on turnover, exports and investments. With a substantial stand-by of investments and initiatives, an indicator of a condition of 'system vulnerability' and of that uncertainty typical of those who 'feel unprotected by the context. And if the research had been carried out in the last few days, the report would have been even more negative," admits Sante Maiolica, ceo of the financial advisory services division of Grant Thornton Italia, an international consulting network that carried out its latestinternational business report in the first quarter of 2025, involving 2,500 executives from medium-sized companies globally.

These, as we know, are certainly not times for optimism, which has dropped by three points globally, but it is Italy that has recorded the most significant drop: -7% (from 65% to 58%). First and foremost, the high cost of energy (63%), a burden on the competitiveness of our companies; the effects of the many geopolitical tensions in progress (56%), due to the difficulty in supplying raw materials or the effects on exports; and an atavistic local criticality such as bureaucracy (55%) weighs heavily, although there have been improvements in the push for Pnrr investments. "The food and beverage, precision mechanics, automotive and textiles are the sectors with the greatest drop in confidence, on the contrary," Maiolica lists, "of the world of services, digital transformation and sustainability," which continue to see the future more positively.

It tells of a country that is more vulnerable than others and more worried than others in the Grant Thorton report, whose indicators often have more negative estimates for Italy: if the number of entrepreneurs, for example, who trust in a growth in profitability is down everywhere by 1%, for us that estimate becomes 7%, a good five points higher than the rest of Europe; just as greater than the rest of the continent are the expectations of a reduction in turnover (4% in Italy, half in the rest of Europe). Thus Trump's duties, announced and then suspended, have fallen like a tornado on 'Italian SMEs which, especially in some sectors, are already suffering in a particular way: companies operating in the textile districts, for example, have not seen the light at the end of the tunnel since the war in Ukraine and the embargo on Russia'. And the same applies to the conflicts in the Middle East or the disputes over Taiwan or to markets in parts of Africa that are perceived as insecure. These are all factors that affect the prospects of our companies, "which American trade policies are now throwing out of business in some cases. There are companies, in fact, that live 70% on exports'. The uncertainty of these times thus ends up highlighting even more the pre-existing weaknesses, 'system vulnerability, dependence on foreign markets, and dwarfism in some cases,' Grant Thorton's CEO rattles off.

There is no reference in the report to economic policies or government choices or the continuing decline in industrial production, but 'if you look at the values in perspective - the forecast reduction in turnover or exports, the decline in investment in technological innovation and branding - indirectly I am led to think that if someone does not have a certain vision, they do not feel protected by the context'. Translated, the entrepreneurs consulted for the research do not feel sufficiently protected in this stormy sea.

And yet, amidst so much negative data, there is one counter-trend aspect to highlight, which 'represents a competitive advantage that we are not used to having, namely access to finance'. In fact, while everywhere there is increasing concern (+3% at both global and European level) about 'access to credit', Italy is going in the opposite direction. 'It is by no means trivial,' Maiolica reflects. There are banks that are getting used to lending to companies, with lower rates and with innovative systems, an important booster for our companies carrying out significant internationalisation operations, for the first time predators and not prey. Before covid, it was a rarity to see SMEs acquiring foreign companies; instead, we are seeing how much they are trying to internationalise.