It’s not just Hormuz: following Saudi Arabia’s attack on the Houthis, there are also risks for Bab el-Mandeb

On 13 July 2026, Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on the airport in Sana’a, the capital of Yemen, with the aim of preventing an Iranian flight carrying the Houthi delegation – which was returning from the funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – from landing. The Houthi rebels are supported by Iran. The Houthis’ military spokesperson, Yahya Sari, commented that Saudi Arabia had thereby ‘put an end to the de-escalation phase’ and had effectively declared war. He therefore announced the reinstatement of a state of war and retaliatory measures.

In fact, the ceasefire had already been severely tested on at least two occasions prior to Saudi Arabia’s attack on the Yemeni airport. Two ships had been attacked in the Red Sea: the ‘Magic Seas’ on 6 July and the ‘Eternity C’ the following day.

The reopening of a Bab el-Mandeb front, alongside the parallel blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, plays into Iran’s hands, as it thereby multiplies the energy-related pressure on the United States and Europe.

If this scenario were to materialise, Italian merchant ships transiting the Red Sea would be forced to consider a detour via the Cape of Good Hope, a solution that would effectively add between ten and 15 days to the voyage, resulting in increased costs (the new route requires significantly more fuel and causes sea freight rates and insurance premiums to double or triple). The Italian Navy, as part of Operation Aspides, would be called upon to escort Italian ships in the Red Sea.

If the Houthis take action at Bab el-Mandeb, oil exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Yanbu – the Saudi city on the Red Sea where there is a large refinery – will be at risk.

“From an energy perspective, we are in a situation where the price has obviously not yet signalled a major problem, as around 400 million barrels of reserves by OECD countries, which have been released onto the market, and this has helped keep prices within a range of between 90 and 100 dollars.” These are the words of Eni’s chief executive, Claudio Descalzi, speaking on Thursday 16 July at a hearing before the Chamber of Deputies’ Committee on Productive Activities.

“With the signing of the agreement (with Iran, ed.) – he emphasised – there was a drop to $68; we’ve now returned to around $85, obviously because there was no positive follow-up to that signing; since the 11th, not a single ship has passed through the Strait, so there’s a new blockade. This changes the state of affairs; it changes it for Europe, and in this case, it changes it on a global scale,” concluded Eni’s chief executive.