Iveco down on stock exchange after guidance cut, analysts assess deals with Tata and Leonardo

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Iveco slipped in the stock market, penalised by the downward revision of estimates for 2025, in light of "the weakness of the market", according to Equita. This, while investors are studying agreements for the disposal of commercial vehicles and the Defence Division, respectively, with Tata Motors and Leonardo. The heavy vehicle manufacturer's stock initially failed to make a price, only to enter trading with losses of around four percentage points. However, the company's stock had climbed sharply in 2025, with a gain of 93 per cent since the beginning of the year, in the wake of rumours around the business divestments that materialised yesterday.

 In detail, Iveco has reached an agreement with India's Tata Motors (on par on the Mumbai Stock Exchange) to create "a commercial vehicle group with the scope, product portfolio and industrial capacity to become a world leader in this dynamic sector". The deal, according to an article in Il Sole 24 Ore, thus overcomes the anomaly of a relatively small European group - with revenues of between 14 and 15 billion - in a context dominated by giants such as Man, Scania, Volvo and Mercedes. The voluntary tender offer - for a consideration of €3.8 billion, excluding the Defence division - on Iveco's shares will be promoted by Tml Cv Holdings Pte, a newco under Dutch law wholly owned by Tata. The deal envisages the delisting of the stock on the Italian Stock Exchange and 'brings with it a series of non-financial agreements for the next two years, to protect employees, organisation, governance and overall strategy,' explains Il Sole 24 Ore, pointing out that Iveco's headquarters will remain in Turin. The industrial logic of the deal is 'correct', according to Equita analysts, as 'the two assets are complementary and the new entity achieves geographical diversification and mass comparable with the other leaders in the sector and with the possibility of exploiting synergies such as Iveco's engine production'.

Intermonte - which has a 'Neutral' rating for the stock with a target price of €20 - points out instead that given the lack of 'industrial and geographical' overlaps, there should be 'no obstacles to the conclusion of the agreement'. Experts also have a positive view of the agreement reached by Iveco for the sale of the Defence division, which will remain in Italian hands and, specifically, will pass to Leonardo - Finmeccanica for €1.7 billion. The agreement, according to the companies, 'enhances the joint commercial positioning'. For Equita - which also welcomed the rise in guidance following Leonardo's quarterly report - the deal can 'generate synergies of €30 million' and was made at 'a reasonable multiple'. For Intermonte, the deal will allow Leonardo 'to strengthen its position in the land sector (platforms on wheels and trucks) and accelerate its strategy of multi-domain platforms with electronics at the centre'. Also not to be overlooked is the strengthening of the joint venture with Rheinmetall, of which Iveco Defence is a key supplier and which 'should acquire the Division's military truck platform from Leonardo in a second phase,' the experts explain.