Exports slow down in January, but production holds

The hope is that, like every year, the Milan Furniture Fair that opens today at Rho Fiera will bring a burst of energy and confidence - the optimism of the will - to furniture companies, at a time when everything would make the pessimism of reason prevail.

After an unexpectedly positive end to the year, thanks above all to a boost from the domestic market, 2026 opened with more than a cloud for the furniture industry, confirming the slowdown in foreign markets, which account for more than half of the sector's total turnover, with €14.2 billion (-0.8% in 2025 compared to 2024, according to Federlegno-Arredo data) out of a total production value of €27.7 billion (+0.9% compared to 2024). The good performance of sales in Italia (+2.7%) was therefore crucial to the sector's resilience. The picture, however, is worsening, and we are not just referring to the effects of the war by the United States and Israel against Iran, which the numbers are still unable to quantify. Already in January, in fact, the furniture export data compiled by FederlegnoArredo (Fla) describe a strongly worsening scenario, starting with the United States.

"The overall decline at the end of 2025 was all in all moderate, around 4.9 per cent. But we were aware that that figure hid much larger decreases starting from the end of the summer, with the official entry into force of the tariffs wanted by President Trump," explains Fla president Claudio Feltrin. The confirmation is a 28.5% drop in January 2026 compared to January 2025, with furniture sales frozen due not only to the new 15% tariffs, but also, and perhaps above all, to the devaluation of the dollar against the euro. Things are not much better in Europe: France (the leading destination market for Italian furniture) is down 6.1%, and Germany (which in the latter part of 2025 had shown timid signs of recovery) as much as 18.4%, taking the EU as a whole to -9%. Nor is it any better in non-European markets, with the United Kingdom (which had recorded sustained growth last year) down 6.7 per cent and China posting a 46.6 per cent thud.

Overall, in January, exports were therefore -13.1 per cent. "And we are still not seeing the effects of the war in Iran, which mainly impacts the Gulf countries, the area from which one of the main contributions to growth in recent years had come, especially from the United Arab Emirates," adds Feltrin. Who warns, however, against an alarmist reading of this data: 'This is only the first month of the year, a traditionally short month and one in which it is therefore easier to record strong fluctuations, in one direction or another. We are concerned, of course, and even more so considering the possible effects of the war in Iran. But we are confident that the conflict can be resolved soon and, although the aftermath will be long, the year can end without too much damage for our companies.

There are two figures, in particular, that comfort the companies: the number of US visitors to the Salone del Mobile has increased significantly, so much so that this country has risen from ninth to fifth place among the most represented in Milan. China is also firmly in first place among the countries present and these two figures together confirm the interest of these very important markets, in spite of the January figures.