Paradigm shift

Japan, Takaichi aims to rewrite economic security to cope with China and global instability

Premier Sanae Takaichi aims to strengthen supply chains, defend critical infrastructure and assert the country's autonomy between China and the US, in what she called 'the most complex and dangerous since the end of World War II'

La premier giapponese Sanae Takaichi REUTERS/Kim Hong-ji/File Photo

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Tokyo changes its skin. Seventy years after the end of the war, Japan once again sees itself not only as an economic power, but also as a strategic power. On Friday, 7 November, in the country's capital, Premier Sanae Takaichi instructed her cabinet to evaluate the revision of the Economic Security Promotion Act, passed in May 2022 and fully effective in 2023, but above all one of the pillars of the national 'integrated security' strategy, which considers the economy part of defence. A decision that is perhaps the most concrete act of the country's new policy line: transforming economic security from a defensive tool to an active pillar of international projection. The law, for Takaichi, will have to be rewritten to adapt to a global scenario, which the premier described as 'the most complex and dangerous since the end of World War II'.

For years, Tokyo has been going through a process of strategic redefinition necessitated by fractures in the global order. The instability of the East China Sea, the technological competition with Beijing, the Russian war in Ukraine and the uncertainties linked to the alliance with Washington have pushed the Japanese leadership to reconsider the very concept of security. The new vision, championed by the Minister of Economic Security Onoda Kimi, starts from a simple but radical premise: in the interconnected economy of the 21st century, industrial and technological autonomy is an integral part of national sovereignty.

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Takaichi ordered the immediate start of consultations with experts and ministries to update the regulatory framework and build a think tank dedicated to economic security. With a twofold objective: rto strengthen supply chains of strategic materials, such as rare minerals and electronic components, and to protect critical infrastructure - from undersea communication cables to digital networks - from hostile interference and takeovers. In essence, Japan wants to shift from a logic of mere defence to one of active resilience, including public incentives, industrial alliances and technological surveillance tools.

The context that prompted the government to move so quickly is related to the changing geography of global economic power. Since the pandemic, Japanese supply chains have shown a surprising fragility: dependence on Beijing for gallium, germanium and rare earths has slowed semiconductor and battery production. Chinese restrictions on the export of these materials have highlighted Tokyo's vulnerability and the urgency of securing alternative channels. And it is precisely through this lens that the agreement signed last October between Takaichi and the Trump administration for the joint exploration of mineral resources in the Pacific Ocean, near the Minamitori Atoll, should be read: an economic cooperation project but, in fact, also a political deterrence manoeuvre towards Beijing.

In parallel, the Ministry of Finance announced the revision of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act, the law governing the control of foreign investments. The new version will reduce bureaucracy, but strengthen selectivity: not all IT companies will have to undergo prior screening, but those deemed 'critical' in terms of cybersecurity will be subject to stricter controls. In addition, Tokyo intends to close regulatory loopholes that allow foreign investors to acquire stakes through intermediary companies. The aim is to create a Japanese version of CFIUS, the powerful US committee that assesses the impact of foreign investments on national security.

A convergence of regulatory interventions that reveals the administration's underlying strategy: merging economy and security into a single paradigm. And it is precisely a paradigm shift, moreover, that moves Japan from the role of 'pacifist technological power' to that of a strategic actor capable of defending its interests in a competitive context. In an Asia marked by Chinese military pressure on Taiwan and North Korean missile tests, Tokyo aims to strengthen its autonomy without breaking the link with Washington, but rejecting the subordinate position that had characterised previous decades.

The premier, who gave her first policy address to the Diet in October, has outlined a government profile strongly marked by national self-sufficiency. Behind her choices can be glimpsed the doctrine of 'normal Japan', a concept that has been running through Japanese politics for years and is now also taking shape in the economic field: less dependence on foreign countries, more control over resources, data and infrastructure. And as much as international tensions provide a pretext, the direction is deeper: it is a response to a perception of decline and vulnerability that has long pervaded Japanese society.

The risks, however, are not lacking. First of all, the fact that this race for economic security could become an isolation trap. Excessive restrictions on foreign investment could in fact reduce the attractiveness of the Japanese market and trigger a spiral of mutual distrust. Some analysts, such as those of the East Asia Forum, have already pointed out that overlapping controls and incentives risk creating a heavy bureaucratic apparatus, slowing down the very innovations that the government intends to promote. Divisions are also emerging within the Liberal Democratic Party: one section of the ruling class fears that the new approach, while necessary, could drive away American and European investors at a time when the Japanese economy is still showing signs of fragility.

The parliamentary debate scheduled for 2026 will therefore be decisive. If Takaichi succeeds in pushing through a coherent and credible reform, Japan could become a model of 'sovereign industrial democracy', capable of balancing openness and protection. If not, it risks becoming trapped between economic nationalism and dependence on strategic alliances.

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