Jet fuel prices are falling, but airfares remain high: up 74% in August
With low-cost airlines, ticket prices are falling. On Asian routes, prices have risen by an average of 45 per cent
The cost of jet fuel is falling, but not that of airfares. In fact, for those who postponed their bookings in the hope that the easing of geopolitical tensions would lead to lower fares, the result has been the opposite. Today, an Economy Class ticket from Italia to a European capital costs on average 21 per cent more than in April, with price rises of up to 74 per cent on flights departing in August.
In the weeks following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the aviation sector faced the risk of a disruption to fuel supplies, linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario did not materialise; the price of jet fuel fell, although it remained 29.5 per cent higher than a year ago, but the reduction in operating costs was not reflected in fares. On the contrary, between April and the first few days of July, flight prices from Italia to European capitals rose by an average of 21% in Economy Class and 9% in Business Class. For Mediterranean destinations, such as Spain and Greece, the average increase was 15%. The fall in fuel prices has, at least for the time being, not altered the airlines’ pricing policies. Demand for air travel remains high, particularly in the European market, whilst reduced competitive pressure on certain routes – partly due to the exit from the market of operators such as Spirit Airlines in the United States – is helping to strengthen the airlines’ pricing power. Europe remains the most resilient market.
In May, traffic rose by 2.7 per cent, bucking the global trend, which saw a 2.2 per cent decline. The overall picture was dragged down mainly by the Middle East (-28.4 per cent) and the United States (-0.8 per cent). Demand in Europe has also been bolstered by the decision of many holidaymakers to concentrate their travel within the continent, which is perceived as a relatively more stable destination from a geopolitical perspective. However, different trends are also emerging within the European market itself.
Routes served by full-service carriers, such as British Airways, Air France-KLM and Aegean, are seeing the most significant fare increases. On routes dominated by low-cost carriers, such as Ryanair, easyJet and Wizz Air, fare increases are more modest, and in some cases price reductions are observed. This difference reflects different business models. Low-cost carriers prioritise filling their aircraft, allowing for greater flexibility in setting fares. Network carriers, on the other hand, aim for higher unit revenue and tend to maintain fare levels even when fuel costs fall. The increases are more pronounced on long-haul routes. Compared with April, flights from Italia to Asia have seen average price rises of 45 per cent, whilst those to the Middle East have risen by 15 per cent.
A return flight from London to New York costs, on average, 25 per cent more. A comparison with prices prior to the outbreak of the crisis highlights the scale of the phenomenon. Data collected by Skyscanner in January 2026 – when summer holidays were already on sale but the conflict had not yet begun – show significant differences.
