Industries

Jewellery, Made in Italy slows down in the first quarter (-9%). And looks pessimistically at the United States

Peserico (Federorafi president): 'The 30% tariffs increase will double the price to the end consumer. We need to look at other markets, such as Africa, and work together with US retailers'.

by Fashion Editor

15 July 2025

4' min read

A 'physiological' change after the great run of the last three years and the consequences of global geopolitical and economic uncertainties mark the change of pace for the Italian jewellery industry: on the basis of the first elaborations carried out by the Confindustria Study Centre Federorafi on Istat data, after having closed 2024 with a substantially growing export (+41.4%), in the first quarter of 2025 exports of the gold-silver-jewellery sector record a 9.1% drop compared to the January-March 2024 period, reaching in value terms just over €3.35 billion.

Cresce in Europa la produzione di gioielli, Italia leader

Overseas performance is, however, once again significantly affected by Turkey: after its exploit in 2024, it loses ground (-40.6%) in the first quarter of 2025. To this is added that of the United States (-9.4%), while in reality many top markets are growing (+10.7% the Arab Emirates, +14.7% Switzerland, +8.9% France, +7.1% Hong Kong). In terms of quantity, the slowdown is even more evident. With reference to wearable jewellery as a whole, in the January-March 2025 period, exported volumes showed a significant decrease of -22.4%.

Arezzo is confirmed in first place among Italian provinces in terms of exported value, despite having witnessed a decrease of -22.8% compared to the first three months of 2024; with exports exceeding 1.4 billion euros, it ensures 41.3% of total sectoral exports from Italy. The performance of the Tuscan province was significantly affected by the flow of precious metals destined for Turkey.

Second is the province of Vicenza, which shows an increase of 5% in January-March 2025, accounting for 18.9% of the national total (EUR 650.2 million). After having been fourth for most of 2024, Alessandria (and thus the district of Valenza) regains the third position in the first quarter of this year, despite a drop of 14.4%; the Piedmontese province accounts for 12.1% of the sectoral total exported worldwide. Moving into fourth position is the province of Milan, whose exports are not so much linked to local production realities as to business choices of a logistic-commercial nature, but rather to 32.1%. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, it is Turin that is experiencing a mini-boom in exports, up by 421.2%, taking it to around 6% of the national total.

"The negative figure for the first quarter was expected, just as we expect a further worsening in the coming months due to the inevitable consequences of the additional tariffs imposed by the United States," commented Claudia Piaserico, President of Confindustria Federorafi. "We are not so alarmed by the slowdown in Turkey, because the boom of the last 18 months was an anomaly for a target group of companies, less than 3% of the national total. From the employment point of view, the growth of the last few years has come to a halt, but for the moment the use of redundancy funds is not yet at worrying levels. The issue of employment and training is at the centre of our agenda, also because negotiations to renew the labour contract that expired at the end of last year began a few months ago, and because the sector must prepare for a generational change, since in the next decade there will be more than 10,000 employees of retirement age.

As far as export figures are concerned, 'I register with interest the restart of the Emirates, as well as of the European countries,' continues Piaserico. 'In the case of exports to other European countries, it is a confirmation of the great potential of our 'neighbours', as had already emerged from a survey that we recently commissioned from the ICE Agency. But they will never be able to make up for the expected collapse in the United States: it is in fact certain that the +30% increase in tariffs from 1 August risks being a 'point of no return' for our exports across the Atlantic. Our estimates, in fact, lead us to calculate that an increase in tariffs of 30% doubles (+60%) the price of an unbranded piece of jewellery sold to the American consumer, completely castrating the spending capacity of that middle class of buyers that has guaranteed the excellent sales performance of our articles in the United States (over one and a half billion euros in 2023, ed.). Therefore, if we add to the price escalation of our jewellery due to tariffs the rise in the prices of precious raw materials and the expected devaluation of the dollar against the euro, the forecasts for the next six months cannot but be marked by pessimism. In order to absorb the backlash, we need to move in the direction of looking for new opportunities in alternative markets, but not substitutes, to the US market. In addition to the European markets, we have also already analysed markets that can be approached in the medium to long term, such as those in Africa, thanks to ICE research on 11 states on that continent presented only a few months ago. Lastly, we must emphasise that, as of today, there are no prerequisites for delocalising production activities to the United States, as past experiences have shown: Italian jewellery is a mix of creativity, heritage, manual skills, technology and innovation that develops and is nurtured thanks to the all-Italian model of the 'Marshallian district' and cannot be replicated outside the borders of the Bel Paese. We must therefore re-launch commercial and communication investments through loyalty agreements with the US large-scale retail trade, which has shown, for example during Covid, great attachment and consideration for the product and Italian entrepreneurs, establishing common strategies to try to absorb the price increase. The Vicenzaoro event in September will undoubtedly be an important test of the sector's resilience'.