Industrial output down (-1.3 per cent), held back by the fashion and chemicals sectors

The Istat figure, whilst not particularly impressive, is nonetheless part of a phase of modest economic recovery, as evidenced by the numerous upward revisions to growth forecasts for Italia, with GDP now expected to rise to just under 1 per cent (+0.9 per cent according to the OECD, +1 per cent from Fitch, and +0.8 per cent from Confindustria), up from the 0.5–0.6 per cent previously forecast. However, inflation is taking its toll: this rise in prices is once again centred on energy and is increasingly spilling over from producer prices to consumer prices, which reached a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2 per cent in September, up from the previous 3.3 per cent. This sudden rise in prices is one of the reasons behind the slowdown in the consumer confidence index, which fell in September, whilst the figure for all business sectors, apart from manufacturing, has also declined.

In Europe, the picture is mixed, with France seeing a fall of three decimal points whilst Germany has experienced an unexpected recovery, with industrial production in August rising by 2 per cent month-on-month and 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The outlook remains uncertain, however, for the automotive sector, which was particularly hard hit in August by a double-digit fall in car exports. Overall, domestic production fell by 4% during the month, a decline identical to that recorded in the first eight months of the year. In September, the situation stabilised, with no change, whilst the nine-month decline remained at -4 per cent, just over three million units. This represents a 15 per cent decrease compared with the same period in 2019, before the Covid crisis.