Justice, yes vote in referendum ahead in all polls: up to 10 points ahead of no vote

The 'Yes' vote in the referendum on justice is starting ahead. The race will be long, no holds barred and with a sprint to the last breath. But the early lines are in favour of the separation of careers. So say the polls. According to the Only Numbers survey published in La Stampa on 10 November, the front in favour exceeds the one against by ten points: 38.9% against 28.9%. The centre-right is rubbing its hands: the reform is one of the qualifying points of the government's action. "I count that in the end the gap will be 20 points," predicted Deputy Prime Minister and League leader Matteo Salvini.

The signatures for the referendum were deposited last week. The polls are expected to open in the spring of 2026. The oppositions will campaign for a 'No' vote, because they believe the government wants control of the judiciary. Besides, a rejection of the consultation one year before the 2027 elections would be a huge blow for Giorgia Meloni. Although the Prime Minister has reiterated that there is no link between the outcome of the vote and the duration of the executive. The oppositions bet on the campaign. 'The first datum that emerges from the poll,' explained MP Valentina D'Orso (M5s), 'is that many citizens still do not have clear ideas and it is understandable that they do. Our task is to explain to them that what is at stake here is not some technical aspect linked to the organisation of justice, but the balance between the powers of the State'.

Despite the inevitable politicisation of an issue that on paper is merely technical, there is no clear distinction between voters' affiliation to the two camps and their voting intention on the referendum. "The fracture between the political forces is clear, but not absolute," writes pollster Alessandra Ghisleri in La Stampa. "78.8% of voters in the majority parties say they are ready to confirm the reform, while among the oppositions 60.8% would vote for No. However, 17.7% of the opposition voters support the government's proposal: a figure that indicates how the issue, although already politically connoted, is not completely impermeable to the boundaries between the alignments".

But there is not only the Onlynimbers sonsage. Several have been published on the site sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it and they all point in the same direction. The poll conducted by Eumetra MR on the referendum and the government's powers and broadcast by Piazza pulita on La 7 also dates back to 10 November: 24.50% say they will vote yes to the reform; the no vote is at 20.50%; 45.10% say they are still undecided. Precisely betting on the still wide indecision in the electorate, there are those who say they are confident of overturning the predictions. Like the Greens' co-spokesperson and Avs deputy, Angelo Bonelli: "Even for Renzi's reform, it was said that the Yes vote would have won. Then we saw how it turned out. Meloni's propaganda machine came down heavily. The only possible strategy is to stay on the substance, to make the Italians understand that we are facing a deception signed by Meloni'. For the honorary president of the 'No' Committee, Enrico Grosso, 'this referendum campaign will be subject to great shifts in consensus because it is right to talk about the merit of the reform'. For the 'Yes' Committee, however, 'the data that emerged from the poll,' said the president of the Criminal Chambers, Francesco Petrelli, 'show that the aims of the reform are clearly comprehensible even to the layman.