Il mondo di Trump

US elections

Harris-Trump heading into the debate: what the polls and American sentiment say

In the polls, the Democratic candidate surpasses the former president by four points and also recovers in swing states

by Silvia Martelli

9 September 2024

Kamala Harris a North Hampton. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

3' min read

Key points

Sentiment superior to Biden 4 years ago
The 'swing states' game
Sensitive topics for Harris

3' min read

Kamala Harris's entry into the race for the White House has significantly changed the game: since her candidacy at the beginning of August, Harris has gained more and more support among American voters. So much so that she has overtaken Trump, after a long period in which the Republican candidate was clearly ahead of Biden. This is what is revealed by the latest data exclusively provided to Il Sole 24 Ore by Finscience for the page of Lab24, which with constantly updated numbers and graphs will follow the race until the November vote.

The data collected, which includes both traditional polls and social media sentiment analysis, show strong momentum for Harris: the Democratic candidate currently has over 48% support nationally, compared to Trump's 45%.

Finscience is based on data from FiveThirtyEight, which collects various American polls. Only polls in which the choice is between Trump and Harris and those whose institutes have a 'seriousness' rating above D are taken into account. Average, minimum and maximum values are extracted for individual candidates on a state-by-state and national basis.

Sentiment superior to Biden 4 years ago

Alessio Garzonio, Principal at Finscience, pointed out that enthusiasm within the Democratic electorate has increased significantly since Biden's retirement, leading to more online conversations with a so-called largely positive sentiment. The level of sentiment for Harris is not only higher than it is now for Biden, but is also "far greater" than it was for Biden in 2020 during the period leading up to his victory. "At the time, Biden had performances that were worse than Kamala Harris' current performance," Garzonio said.

The 'swing states' game

This enthusiasm is also reflected in the swing states - the traditionally swing states that often determine the outcome of elections - where Harris has gained wide support. So much so that some key states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, have switched political colours, signalling a possible victory for Harris.

The Democratic nominee gained more support than Biden in almost all demographic groups, but particularly among black voters, Latino voters, young people, women, and independents.

Harris is also receiving renewed support from the technology sector, which had been divided during Trump's presidency and had gradually distanced itself from the Democratic candidate during Biden's campaign. With Harris in the field, however, there has been a return of confidence from large companies and Silicon Valley leaders, with a significant increase in funding from this sector.

Most sensitive issues for Harris

Despite the enthusiasm for Harris, some key issues could pose pitfalls for his campaign. For example, the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a sensitive topic, with negative sentiments involving both candidates. Similarly, economic concerns, particularly inflation, continue to weigh heavily and are traditionally favourable terrain for Trump. Even on the immigration front, Harris struggles to gain an edge over Trump.

Harris excels, however, on social and demographic issues, such as abortion and the rights of the LGBT community, which see the Democratic nominee clearly ahead of both Trump and Biden in 2020. This improvement is attributed not only to her political positions, but also to her identity, which makes her closer to these groups of voters.

Garzonio noted, however, that the 'honeymoon' phenomenon that has occurred in the past with regard to Biden could be repeated with Harris: it may not last. As the debates and other key campaign events approach, there could be significant new changes.