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US elections

Kamala Harris, pollsters' 'honeymoon' seems to be at an end

The slowdown in the Democratic candidate's approval rating, the economy and the support of political figures

by Silvia Martelli

12 October 2024

Kamala Harris a Chandler, in Arizona, il 10 ottobre (Photo by Rebecca NOBLE / AFP).

3' min read

Key points

The role of independents and social media
Sensitive topics and challenges for Harris
Financing: an advantage for Harris

3' min read

After a strong rise in support for Kamala Harris, fuelled by her nomination and subsequently the first presidential debate, enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate has slowed. This is revealed by the latest data provided exclusively for the page of Lab24 by Finscience, the fintech brand of Datrix, an international ecosystem of AI-based software companies.

The data collected, which includes both traditional polling and social media sentiment analysis, show that in the weeks immediately following the debate, Harris gained a spike in support, consolidating his lead in several key states. Harris remains ahead of Donald Trump by 3 points (48.78% vs. 45.36%) nationally, but in the last two weeks there has been a decline in the margin between the two candidates, especially in some Midwestern states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, against expectations has not yet switched to supporting Harris, remaining one of the most contested and decisive states for the outcome of the election. Here, Trump's lead remains narrow, at 0.06%, a margin so slim that, as Alessio Garzonio, principal at Finscience, puts it, 'for the polls it is almost equivalent to nothing'.

The 'honeymoon' effect and the stalemate in the polls

Already in the previous interview, Garzonio predicted a possible 'honeymoon' effect for Harris: a period of initial enthusiasm that now seems to have faded. 'Everything has come to a standstill at a point of uncertainty,' Garzonio comments, 'neither in a clear Kamala advantage, nor in a desperate situation for Trump. This stalemate makes the outcome of the election even more unpredictable, with Harris ahead in the popular vote, but with Trump likely to retain a majority of delegates, especially because of key states like Pennsylvania.

Garzonio thus speculates a scenario in which Harris could win the popular vote, but not the presidency, similar to what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016. "I see a good probability that either Kamala wins or a Clinton-Trump case recurs," Garzonio said, pointing out how the structure of the US electoral system makes such an eventuality possible.

The role of independents and social media

One of the elements that is favouring Harris in national polls is the strong support among independents. In fact, polls indicate that Harris is gaining ground among these voters, thus gaining a larger margin than Trump in some states that tend to be Democratic.

However, analysis of social media conversations shows a slowdown in enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate. 'Sentiment towards Harris is still positive, but the amount of conversations is declining,' Garzonio explains, pointing out that the 'Harris community' seems less active than in previous weeks.

Sensitive topics and challenges for Harris

The economy, historically a favourable battleground for Republicans, is an issue on which Harris is improving. Garzonio noted an increase in positive sentiment towards the nominee on issues such as fracking and policies for small and medium-sized businesses, signs that the nominee's strategy of promoting a solid and well-defined economic plan, in contrast to Trump's less clear-cut one, may be paying off.

However, there are issues on which Harris continues to struggle. The handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, for example, remains a critical issue for the candidate, with widespread negative sentiment among voters, not only towards Harris, but also towards the Biden-Harris administration as a whole.

The immigration issue has seen a worsening for Trump in particular following the (false) claim that immigrants eat pets, such as dogs and cats. Trump's deterioration did not, however, lead to a significant advantage for Harris.

The weight of secondary characters

Another interesting aspect concerns the influence of secondary figures in the campaign. Trump seems to have played better the card of supporting figures such as Elon Musk, whose impact on conservative voters was significant, according to Garzonio.

On the other hand, Taylor Swift's support for Harris, although initially relevant, seems to have lost its impact over time.

'Trump has focused on a more involved figure, while Harris has sought the support of prominent political figures,' Garzonio explains. Indeed, Harris is banking heavily on figures such as Gavin Newsom, governor of California, and Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, both considered potential strategic allies in crucial states.

Financing: an advantage for Harris

Another strong point for Harris is funding. Her campaign has garnered strong support, with smaller average donations, a sign of widespread enthusiasm among supporters. Harris, who has raised over a billion dollars, is in fact the presidential candidate to have raised the most money in such a short period in US history. However, Garzonio warns that as we get closer to the election, the financial advantage is less significant than the actual impact of the votes.