The democratic campaign

Kamala Harris in swing states chasing the undecided vote

In the seven Swing States, the American presidency is being played out on a razor's edge. NPR radio polls give Trump the lead for the first time

NEW YORK Marco Valsania

La candidata democratica Kamala Harris durante un comizio a Grand Rapids nel Michigan

3' min read

3' min read

Few perhaps but decisive for sure. It is the great battle for uncertain American voters in a handful of states. We are now just over two weeks away from polling day, 5 November, and the sprint for the White House is in the home stretch with the two challengers, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, on one mission: in addition to mobilising their base, in a climate as polarised as ever, they must convince those who are still hesitant. A group today still estimated at between 2% and 5% and which can determine the outcome when the distance between success and defeat is measured by a few thousand ballots.

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The Battle of the Rallies

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This is what happens in the Swing States, the states really at stake, no more than seven concentrated in the industrial Midwest and the South Central: here Harris and Trump pour financial resources and energy. For a duel to the last consensus that has become almost a face-to-face at a distance: both have held rallies and events in Michigan, one of the great battlegrounds.

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Harris flew here from Wisconsin, another state on the brink. To be exact in Grand Rapids, scene of a Fall Festival, where she kicked off a tour de force: in one day she reached Lansing, for meetings with workers and trade unionists, and Oakland County, north of Detroit, for a rally. He will then be in the state's main city where he will see religious leaders.

Trump responded by holding a round table in Oakland and a rally in Detroit. He then leaves Michigan for other destinations up for grabs: Pennsylvania, where he will speak in the rural and suburban heartland of Lancaster. And North Carolina, where he will hold court in the economic engine of Greenville. Early voting in two of the Swing States has added urgency to the candidates' moves: in North Carolina, where more than 200,000 ballots were returned in the opener, and in Georgia.

Head-to-head in the polls

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The campaign frenzy aimed at the uncertain is the result of polls that appear frozen within narrow margins, with Trump eroding Harris' early exploits. An average calculated by CNN gives 50% of likely voters nationwide to the Democratic nominee and 49% to the Republican leader. In Arizona, another contested state, Trump appears to be ahead by three points, 50% to 47%. In Pennsylvania it would be Harris who would come out on top with 50 per cent to 48 per cent. Overall analyses of all seven swing states conducted by the public radio network NPR are, if anything, more heart-stopping: they see Trump in a slight lead for the first time, by 0.34 percentage points, with two states more clearly in his favour - Georgia and Arizona - and five on the razor's edge, Nevada alongside the aforementioned, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

For Harris, the main concern now is defending the Blue Wall, the cracked old Democratic fortress that runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is considered his best chance of victory, to get to the 270 big voters in the individual states who decide the White House. The fall of even one of them, won by Biden in 2020 but by Trump in 2016, could pave the way for the Republicans.

The game is particularly open with the evolution of the electorate: whites without university degrees are declining but still over 50% in the Blue Wall. And Trump is courting them. Hispanics are increasing in states such as Nevada and Arizona, and the Republican is gaining among traditionally Democratic ethnic minorities who have seemed susceptible to his conservative populism.

Harris counter-attacks to consolidate the multi-ethnic vote and advances among more educated whites and in the suburbs. On issues Trump remains ahead albeit narrowly on the economy, foreign policy and immigration. Harris on democracy, healthcare and abortion.

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