Military support for Kiev, favour prevails, but down from 2023

On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Italian public opinion remains divided on military support for the country, even if consensus prevails on the supply of weapons. This was confirmed by the Swg survey, carried out from 18 to 20 February using the Cawi method on a sample of 800 adults,

In April 2023, 51 per cent of the respondents were in favour of continuing to send arms, in May 2025 42 per cent were in favour, and in February 2026 the percentage had risen by two points to 44 per cent. Among the opposition electorate the figure is at 55%, while it is 46% among majority voters. At 38%, the percentage of those who want to stop the sending of weapons, compared to 41% in May 2025 and 31% in April 2023. In detail, 43% of majority voters are for stopping the sending, a percentage that drops to 32% among opposition voters.

The poll shows that 48% of the sample believes that Ukrainians should be willing to give up the part of the Donbass currently occupied by the Russians in order to achieve a ceasefire. And 40% believe that Ukrainians should renounce joining NATO.

Regarding the ongoing negotiations, according to the Swg poll, pessimism dominates and is more pronounced than four years ago: 36% believe that the negotiations will lead to a solution, but the war will continue for a long time. 30% that it will not lead to a solution. Very few - only 9% - believe in a quick solution. 25% of the sample did not respond.

Responsibility for the failure to reach an agreement to end the conflict is attributed mainly to Putin: 33%, a percentage that drops to 30% among majority voters and rises to 41% among opposition voters. There is no shortage of critics of Ukraine, which does not want to cede the Donbass to the Russians (27%). 25% believe that major powers such as the United States and China are happy for the war to continue. 15% do not answer.