TuttoFood, Italian food remains strong despite the Hormuz crisis and tariffs

The challenges and threats are all there, from US tariffs to the tensions in the Middle East that are weighing down costs for businesses. But there are also new opportunities on the table in addition to the proven resilience and responsiveness of the Italian food industry. This is the conviction of the president of Federalimentare, Paolo Mascarino who, on the occasion of TuttoFood at the Milan Fair, summarised the competitive scenario of the sector. A scenario that, despite the difficulties, has already recorded an important ability to react on the part of the sector, which closed 2025 in the positive, and thus started again in 2026.

'The domestic food industry,' Mascarino explains, 'is demonstrating remarkable resilience and a great ability to respond to strong geopolitical turbulence. In 2025, the sector reached a turnover of 204 billion euro, up +3.6% on the previous year, supported by a good trend in industrial production (+1.6%) and dynamic exports (+4.2%). The year 2026 presents encouraging figures even if the international scenario with its inflation and cost pressures contribute to a climate of uncertainty. First the US tariffs, and now the tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, with its effects on energy, packaging and the supply of some strategic raw materials (fertilisers and aluminium above all) do not help. The food industry will endeavour, as it has always done, to contain product increases, reducing margins, seeking a balance between maintaining demand and safeguarding business'.

In particular, the new threats of high diesel prices and tightening restrictions on fertilisers are likely to cause a new flare-up in costs that will eventually affect the entire supply chain starting with the production of agricultural raw materials.

"The supply chain," adds the president of Federalimentare, "is being squeezed by new inflationary pressures. As the president of Confindustria Emanuele Orsini recently reminded us, a prolonged conflict in the Gulf risks leading the country to zero growth and the risk of stagflation (recession plus inflation, ed.). In this scenario, Italia cannot be left alone. The conflict in the Middle East involves all of Europe and it is in Europe that extraordinary initiatives must be taken for extraordinary events. The revision of the ETS as well as the government's proposal to extend the exemptions to the Stability Pact to the high cost of energy, activating safeguard clauses, are two solutions that would give breath to industries. Especially to the food industry which, I remind you, is among the leading Italian manufacturers and at the top of European industry as well'.

However, there is no shortage of positive signs. There are great expectations in the production universe for the new trade agreements signed by Brussels with the Latin American Mercosur countries and India. In the medium term, positive reflections are expected especially from South America, where Italian food production can count on the flywheel of the strong presence of citizens of Italian origin.