Salaries

Labour, real contractual wages recovered in March but still 8% lower than January 2021

The hourly contractual wage index in March 2025 is +0.4% compared to February and +4% compared to March 2024 according to Istat

by Giorgio Pogliotti

3' min read

3' min read

With the impetus of the contractual renewals, in Q1 2025 wages are growing on 2024, confirming the tendency to make up lost ground especially in the private sector, and more modestly in the public sector. In real terms, after the loss of purchasing power that occurred in 2022-2023 - a two-year period characterised by a high level of inflation -, real contractual wages in March 2025 are still about 8% lower than in January 2021: industry and agriculture are doing better, while the gap is more noticeable in private services and public administration.

January-March trend growth of 3.9% in average hourly earnings

Looking at the quarter, the average hourly wage in the period January-March 2025 increased by 3.9% compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, the hourly contractual wage index in March 2025, according to ISTAT's findings, increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month and by 4% compared to March 2024; the trend increase, i.e. over March 2024, was 4.9% for industrial employees, 4.3% for private service employees and 1.7% for public administration employees.

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The sectors with the highest tendential increases were food (+7.8%), metalworking (+6.3%) and trade (+6.1%). In contrast, there was no increase for private pharmacies, telecommunications, regions and local authorities and the national health service.

The hourly contractual wage index for the whole economy at the end of March shows an increase of 2.6 % in the six-month period April-September 2025 and 2.7 % on average in 2025.

There are 6.2 million workers with expired contracts (47.3%)

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At the end of March, there were 35 contracts awaiting renewal between the public and private sectors and involving about 6.2 million employees, 47.3% of the total, a figure that is down on the previous month (48.5%), but up on March 2024 (34.9%). The 40 national collective agreements in force for the economic part concern 52.7% of employees - about 6.9 million - and correspond to 50.7% of the total payroll.

In the private sector, one in three awaiting renewal

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The ISTAT observatory shows that as a result of the first quarter renewals, at the end of March only three out of ten employees in the private sector are still waiting for the renewal of their national collective agreement. In the private sector alone, the proportion of employees waiting for renewal was 32.6 per cent, down from the previous month (34.2 per cent) and up from March 2024 (16.7 per cent). The waiting months for employees with an expired contract are 11.5, an average wait that drops to 3.8 months when calculated on the total number of private employees.

6.9 million employees covered by the contract

At the end of March, 40 contracts were in force, regulating the economic treatment of about 6.9 million employees and corresponding to 50.7% of the total payroll. The share rises to 65.9% in the private sector, differentiating by economic activity: 100% in agriculture, 42.4% in industry and 84.6% in private services. In the public administration the incidence is zero, as the contracts renewed refer to the three-year period 2022-2024 and are therefore already expired.

Nine contracts were implemented in the first quarter: logistics, social welfare services-Uneba, ministries, tax agencies, non-economic public bodies, construction, electricity, tram drivers and RAI. The average waiting time for renewal for employees with an expired contract, between March 2024 and March 2025, decreased from 29 to 23.1 months, while for total employees it increased from 10.1 to 10.9 months.

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