Ecb Forum

Lagarde (ECB): 'The fight against inflation is not over. A 'soft landing' is not yet guaranteed'

No indication, therefore, of the next rate cut: 'We must remain vigilant'.

by Isabella Bufacchi

La presidente della Bce Christine Lagarde. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

3' min read

3' min read

"We have come a long way in the fight against inflation... but our work is not done and we must remain vigilant". This was said by ECB President Christine Lagarde in her speech this evening to the participants of the Ecb Forum, an annual event held in Sintra, Portugal, to discuss monetary policy. No indication, therefore, of the next rate cut.

"Given the size of the inflation shock, a 'soft landing' is not yet guaranteed," Lagarde warned, assessing the costs of monetary policy in terms of the impact on the economy of raising rates.

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The success of a soft landing, Lagarde defined it as having managed to 'avoid a recession or a sharp deterioration in employment'.

"But while our policy path has helped tame inflation, it has also dampened economic growth," Lagarde pointed out, adding that "Interest rates have risen steadily and remained high while the economy has stagnated for five consecutive quarters."

"This is inevitable when central banks face shocks that push inflation and output in opposite directions. But this time, the costs of disinflation have been contained compared to similar episodes in the past,' Lagarde pointed out, highlighting the resilience of the labour market, the high level of employment and the low level of unemployment.

Growing employment

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"Employment has grown despite the slowdown in GDP growth, increasing by 2.6 million people since the end of 2022. And unemployment is at an all-time low for the euro area, and well within the range observed during previous soft landings in major economies," he emphasised.

Thus Lagarde also reiterated in Sintra the ECB's cautious approach that will guide its next steps: "The strength of the labour market allows us to take time to gather new information, but we must also be aware that the growth outlook remains uncertain. This underpins our determination to depend on the data and to take our policy decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis'.

The success of the ECB

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"Our monetary policy decisions have succeeded in keeping inflation expectations anchored and inflation is expected to return to 2% in the latter part of next year. Considering the size of the inflation shock, this return is remarkable in many respects," Lagarde emphasised, emphasising the success of the tightening phase of monetary policy.

"In October 2022, inflation peaked at 10.6 per cent. By September 2023, the last time we raised rates, it had fallen by more than half, to 5.2 per cent. And then, after nine months of holding rates steady, we saw inflation halve again to 2.6 per cent, which led us to cut rates for the first time in June."

The Sintra Appointment

Every year since 2014, the European Central Bank has organised the ECB Forum in Sintra. It is an event conceived by then-President Mario Draghi to give an alternative voice from Europe to the American conference in Jackson Hole. And to reward young talent aspiring central bankers and economists.

The title of this year's ECB Forum fully captures the sense of the times: 'Monetary Policy in an Era of Transformation'. In addition to ECB President Christine Lagarde, Vice-President Luis de Guindos, and the four other members of the Executive Board (Piero Cipollone, Philip Lane, Isabel Schnabel and Frank Elderson), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak tomorrow in a panel with Lagarde herself and Brazilian Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto.

Speakers in the 2024 edition include Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago, Claudio Borio head of Bri's economic and monetary department, Kristin Forbes professor at MIT, and Jan Hatzius chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

The papers to be discussed tomorrow and on 3 July range from post-pandemic inflation trends to the economy in terms of biodiversity loss, from different rate cycles to European productivity, past, present and future.

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  • Isabella Bufacchi

    Isabella Bufacchivicecaporedattore corrispondente dalla Germania

    Luogo: Francoforte, Germania

    Lingue parlate: inglese, francese, tedesco, spagnolo

    Argomenti: mercato dei capitali, ECB watcher, fixed income e debito, strumenti derivati, Germania

    Premi: Premio Ischia Internazionale di Giornalismo per l’analisi economica, Premio Q8 per giovani giornalisti economici

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