Oil

Trump’s threats trigger an oil rally; Eni takes centre stage on the Milan Stock Exchange

Crude oil at a three-week high: the market fears a breakdown in negotiations between Washington and Tehran

 IMAGOECONOMICA

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Donald Trump’s latest threats, as he intends to wage an economic war against Iran, are fuelling a surge in crude oil prices, which in turn is driving the oil sector higher on the stock market. Consequently, Eni is leading the gains on the Milan Stock Exchange, also benefiting from a positive report by Bernberg, which has raised its target price for the share to €25.5 from €22 and confirmed its ‘hold’ rating. Saipem is also rising, whilst Tenaris, which had already shown signs of weakness at the time of its quarterly results, linked to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Elsewhere in Europe, TotalEnergies stands out in Paris, BP in London and Repsol in Madrid.

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In fact, crude oil prices surged to a three-week high today, with Brent currently trading well above the $90-per-barrel mark at $93.90 (+2.49 per cent) and WTI at $87.67 (+0.86 per cent). Donald Trump’s latest statements have helped push both benchmarks back to levels not seen since late July, further dashing hopes for a swift end to the conflict with Iran and an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. “I announce that any country that allows its financial institutions, its companies, its airports or its government bodies to offer any form of support to Iran will face terrible economic repercussions,” wrote the US president on Truth Social, threatening to carry out “the most crushing economic operation ever undertaken” against the Islamic Republic.

Tehran’s response was not long in coming: “The so-called ‘economic D-Day’ is intended to divert attention from the crisis the United States is currently facing: unprecedented debt and rising borrowing costs,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on X. “Persisting with policies doomed to failure will only lead to further defeat and hostility from the Iranian people.”

According to experts, this latest exchange of barbs is unlikely to help break the deadlock in the negotiations between the two countries, which have been at a standstill for several weeks now. “Sanctions, the blocking of Iranian ships and the recent severing of ties by the United Arab Emirates – which have suspended all trade and financial relations with Iran – are exerting enormous economic pressure” on Tehran, writes Global Risk Management. “However, this does not necessarily mean that the country”, which has traditionally been very adept at circumventing international economic reprisals since the 1979 revolution, “will return to the negotiating table”. This reinforces the view that the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil used to pass before the war, will remain ‘closed for a long time’.

“Tensions in the Middle East remain high, leaving room for further supply disruptions,” adds UBS. “The fall in oil exports from the Middle East is once again putting pressure on the oil market.” For experts at the brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, on the other hand, “the US President’s threat of economic war against Iran is rightly seen as an escalation of the ongoing conflict”. In this context, “any Iranian retaliation, possibly against the energy infrastructure of neighbouring countries, will exert further pressure on oil supply, production and exports.” Furthermore, the announcement of the economic package came the day after the United Arab Emirates severed all economic ties with Tehran, having accused Iran of firing missiles into its territory. The UAE, traders explain, is a major financial and commercial hub for Iranians, and its move is “set to further increase the Islamic Republic’s isolation”.

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