France: Le Pen has been convicted. But she can still stand as a candidate in the presidential election

“Thank you for being here,” Le Pen had said, in a loud voice, in the packed and very hot courtroom, addressing her supporters present. Then the presiding judge entered the courtroom and everyone stood up for the reading of the verdict.

Marine Le Pen’s lawyers highlighted a “significant reduction in the penalties, particularly the ban on standing for election”, just a few minutes after the announcement of the sentence handed down to the leader of the French nationalist party.

According to lawyer Rodolphe Bosselut, the President of the Court referred to the principle of ‘the freedom of voters to choose a candidate’.

"It’s ‘a good start’," commented the lawyer, saying he was "partially" satisfied with the decision.

Le Pen’s political future has been in limbo since last year, when she was found guilty of misappropriation of European Parliament funds – between 2004 and 2016 – for having some of her assistants work for her party, the Rassemblement National (which was known as the Front National at the time of the events), rather than for the European Parliament. She was sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, two of which were suspended, and to five years’ disqualification from holding public office.

The decision comes at a time when Le Pen has never seemed so close to the Élysée Palace, following three presidential campaigns and two defeats in the run-off against Macron. But even if she were to be excluded from the race, it is unclear whether her party’s prospects would suffer: the president of the Rassemblement National, Jordan Bardella, aged 30, has been touted as a possible replacement, and in some early polls he appears to be at least as strong.

Le Pen said that she would not campaign if she were placed under house arrest and forced to wear an electronic tag, but in an interview last week she assured that she would continue to participate in French political life whatever the outcome of the proceedings. “It’s no longer up to me,” she said. “But I will continue to fight and I will continue to be an activist. And if I am just an activist, then I will be just an activist.”

La leader dell'estrema destra francese Marine Le Pen, deputata del Rassemblement National (RN - RN), arriva per assistere alla lettura della sentenza nel processo d’appello che la vede coinvolta, insieme allo stesso partito RN e ad altri 10 imputati riconosciuti colpevoli di appropriazione indebita di fondi del Parlamento europeo, presso il tribunale di Parigi sull’Ile de la Cité, a Parigi, in Francia, il 7 luglio 2026. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier

According to three officials from the Rassemblement National, Le Pen is expected to go straight to the party’s headquarters, in the western part of the French capital, to meet Bardella.

Bardella was not in the courtroom when the verdict was read out.

At 8 pm, Le Pen is expected to appear on a prime-time national news programme for an interview that will mark her first public comments since the verdict.

It is unclear whether the far right would have a better chance of winning the presidency with or without Le Pen. Polls suggest that Bardella is slightly more popular. A survey by the French institute Ifop, published last month, puts him at up to 37 per cent in the first round, more than 15 points ahead of his nearest rival in the scenarios tested.

The same poll suggests that Le Pen would also win the first round, but with a maximum of 32 per cent.

The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for 18 April. If no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two will face each other in a run-off on 2 May.

However, Bardella’s lead in the popularity polls is offset by his lack of experience. His age and the fact that he has not yet been put to the test add to the uncertainty surrounding his ability to maintain momentum in the coming months. It remains to be seen whether French voters are prepared to entrust a thirty-year-old with the leadership of a nuclear power and Europe’s second-largest economy.

For Le Pen, the issue is more personal: she has spent over a decade cleaning up the image of the party she inherited from her father and transforming it into a major force in French politics.

Now that the Rassemblement National is closer than ever to power, she may not be the one to reap the rewards.