Le Pen's defeat leaves Meloni lonelier but freer to approach the Ppe

Giorgia Meloni more isolated in Brussels, perhaps, but of a loneliness that can shine. Because there is no doubt that the defeat of Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National in the second round of the French legislative weakens the sovereignist and essentially pro-Putin right wing, but if there is anyone who was preparing to toast the victory of her French ally on Sunday evening and was disappointed, it was not Meloni - who has made the Atlanticist and pro-Ukraine choice the pivot of her foreign policy - but the deputy prime minister and leader of the League Matteo Salvini. Who, coherently with the ultra-right turn he wanted to give to the League, will move in the coming days together with Le Pen to the nascent patriots group of Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban. Who in turn, just as consistently, christened the start of his EU presidency with a visit (albeit in a personal capacity) to the Russian president.

Meloni more alone, therefore, given that the former allies of the ultra-right xenophobic Spanish party Vox have in turn abandoned the Conservatives and Reformists (Ecr) group led precisely by Meloni to join the League and Rassemblement Nationale in the new Orban creature. A "cleansing" that can only benefit the Italian prime minister, now freer in her European strategies, placing her and her Fratelli d'Italia party further away from the radical and anti-establishment right and closer to the European People's Party and therefore to the majority that is preparing to vote for the encore of the popular German Ursula von der Leyen at the head of the EU Commission. Meloni abstained in her capacity as prime minister less than a fortnight ago at the EU Council in protest at being excluded from the definition of the new governance (and in the case of the candidature of the socialist Antonio Costa as EU Council president, the abstention even turned into a vote against, the first time ever for Italy).

The negotiations in Europe, after the standstill of the French legislature, will come alive in the coming days until the EU Parliament vote on 18 June. That will be the occasion to understand whether the defeat of the sovereignist right in France will help change the attitude of the Italian government and turn that abstention into a vote in favour, also considering the fact that - given that in the Europarliament the quorum is the absolute majority of the Chamber's members - abstention would in fact be equivalent to a vote against. Of course, there are Salvini's sovereignist sirens ringing in the PM's right ear: announcing the switch to Orban's patriots, the leader of the League already anticipated "a clear no to any hypothesis of Ursula bis and to any alliance with the socialists and the eco-fans, all taxes and landings" when the French ballot boxes had just closed. But realpolitik should, on the other hand, push Meloni to give value to the fact 'that the only right wing that manages to win in a large European state and lead a government that is the most solid and stable in Europe is that of Fratelli d'Italia, with Meloni as leader of the right-of-centre coalition', as Chamber of Deputies group leader Tommaso Foti hastens to say.

The Melonian minister himself, Raffaele Fitto, who is in pole position to hold a weighty post as commissioner, warns that 'there is no orientation yet' but that we must 'understand the evolution' and 'listen to what will be said in the discussions we will have beforehand with President von der Leyen and in the merit of her programme speech'. Translated, the Italian government expects openings on the timing of the Green Deal and on immigration. In short, a test of maturity awaits Meloni soon, who now has the opportunity to strengthen her median position between the most extreme and sovereignist right and the EPP, making the Ecr MPs' vote count when dossiers on which variable majorities are already expected to be discussed. An interesting test will be the prime minister's mission to Washington in the coming hours, where she will meet again with many European leaders at the NATO summit, starting with French President Emmanuel Macron, reinvigorated by the second round of the legislative elections and with whom Italy clearly enjoys good relations.