Lega, in Lombardy the congress that puts Salvini on trial

The united candidacy, promised amidst smiles of circumstance and embarrassed silences, is (barring last-minute surprises) a mirage. Thus, the regional congress of the League in Lombardy, set for 15 December, is preparing to become much more than a simple internal competition: it could be the first real political trial of the leadership of Matteo Salvini, the Captain who has been seeing his vessel taking on water for over two years.

The contenders? Massimiliano Romeo, leader of the senators and leader of the 'northernist' wing; Luca Toccalini, a young up-and-comer and very loyal to the secretary, almost his generational alter ego; and perhaps, to understand whether he will really be in the game, we will have to wait until 1 December, Christian Invernizzi, yesterday's deputy and voice of the diehards who dare to dissent. It is he who, along with twenty others, had challenged Salvini by opposing the candidature of the controversial General Vannacci at the European elections.

Lombardy, the cradle and historical laboratory of the Carroccio, has been a commissariat since 2021, the year of Paolo Grimoldi's resounding exit from the scene, the last of the Bossians, then expelled in a crescendo of tears and wounds. But the congress of 15 December will not only be the theatre of a Lombard showdown: it is here that the state of the entire Legahist architecture will be measured. It will be, for Salvini, a litmus test of his power and staying power, especially in view of the federal congress in 2025, where his political destiny is at stake.

The numbers, for now, do not smile on the secretary. The League is experiencing a now constant haemorrhaging of consensus: the latest electoral data tell of a party that, after the débâcle at the European elections, has lost ground even in the regional ones, suffering not only a drop in votes but also the exit from the scene in Sardinia of Christian Solinas and then recently, in Umbria, of Donatella Tesei. The future, however, is played out in the historical strongholds, Lombardy and Veneto, and even here the winds are not favourable. In Veneto, where the governor Luca Zaia represents the last bastion of the leghism that once was, Giorgia Meloni advances her demands: she wants a candidate from Fratelli d'Italia, strong with a 37% that has outclassed the paltry 13% of the leghist party, undermined also by the Democratic Party.

Zaia, for now, tries to resist, but the two-term limit imposes a limit that Salvini has not been able to overcome. 'I will do everything to keep the League leading the centre-right in Veneto,' he said. Words that sound like an out-of-tune refrain in the Serenissima.