Leonardo’s share price slips despite better-than-expected results. Conservative guidance is a cause for concern

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) Leonardo slips on the stock market following its results: the third-quarter results exceeded market expectations, but analysts are wondering why they did not prompt the group to raise its guidance on full-year 2026 financial results. The cautious outlook, which raises some questions about the performance in the final quarter, is likely to be the focus of the results presentation that CEO Lorenzo Mariani will give this afternoon. The share price has fallen by more than 3 per cent.

The aerospace group recorded growth in revenue and operating margins across all divisions, closing the January–September period with an adjusted net profit of 812 million (+74.2 per cent) and an EBITA of 1.3 billion (+37.7 per cent) on revenues up 14.2 per cent to 15.3 billion. In the third quarter alone, revenue rose to 5.34 billion (from 4.52 billion), EBITA to 521 million (from 364 million) and net profit rose from 193 million to 336 million. Analysts’ consensus estimates had forecast revenue of 5.22 billion, EBITDA of 482 million and profit of 271 million.

Orders for the January–September period rose by 28 per cent to 23.3 billion, including the consolidation of Iveco Defence, bringing the order book to 60.4 billion (+28 per cent).

Whilst the performance of orders has led to an upward revision of the guidance for 2026 (with new orders now expected to total 29.5 billion), the same has not been true of the profit and loss account estimates, which have merely been confirmed. With the guidance confirmed, Equita Sim points out that the fourth quarter – the period from which 45–50 per cent of EBITA is typically derived – would appear to show “a slowdown in growth rates” (revenue up 12 per cent after a 14 per cent increase in the first nine months, EBITA up 11 per cent after a 38 per cent increase in the first nine months, and free cash flow similar to last year at 1.44 billion), despite the consolidation of Iveco Defence and the recent improvement in the guidance for the US subsidiary DRS.

In its commentary , Akros highlights how the defence electronics division exceeded the consensus thanks to the performance of IDV and DRS, and how the aerospace division also reported better-than-expected operating margins; the helicopters division performed well, whilst the Cyber and Space divisions were in line with forecasts. For Intermonte, the outlook for 2026 results will be the focus of CEO Mariani’s presentation this afternoon, alongside developments in the Bromo satellite project (a joint venture with Airbus and Thales) and progress on the GCAP programme.