Ispi Report 2026: geopolitical and industrial challenges for Europe in the Trump era

The picture remains complex, even though,' notes Ispi vice-president Emma Marcegaglia, 'the impact of the phase of uncertainty on the global economy has so far been less heavy than initially forecast, with 86% of EU companies saying they will continue to invest in 2025. Companies are trying to react,' she explains, 'by diversifying, for example, exports and sources of supply, in the knowledge, however, that they must continue to believe in Europe.

'Brussels has a lot to do,' explains the entrepreneur, President and CEO of Marcegaglia Holding, 'but it is our chance, all we have, because it is worse outside. Here there is freedom and democracy, we do not have the Ice militia'. The hope is to overcome individual vetoes (see Orban) and adopt common projects to have more autonomy, for example in defence, generally following the strategic route traced by Canadian Prime Minister Carney at Davos and aiming at a new and strengthened alliance between medium-sized powers, 'seeking serious allies, moving forward as we can'. And thus also looking beyond the USA, with which we must act firmly and unitedly. "Trump," Marcegaglia explained, "has respect for those who have a lot of power and in these 12 months we have understood that having an accommodating attitude towards him does not pay. Europe has done well to show itself united on Greenland, the best way to deal with Trump is to become stronger, eliminating the constraints in Europe that make us weaker instead'.

European reaction that must also pass through the ratification of new free trade agreements, starting with Mercosur, an agreement postponed at the photofinish by the EU Parliament to the Court of Justice by a handful of votes.

"In this way we also put at risk other agreements that were on the way,' explains Confindustria Vice-President for Internationalisation Barbara Cimmino, 'and this happens just when we can radically change the direction of our exports by seeking new outlets, ratification would have been a clear signal of strengthening Europe. German Chancellor Merz called this vote 'deplorable' and unfortunately we in Italy did not do the same'.

'Fine to criticise Europe,' Emma Marcegaglia rejoices, 'but then our parties must not do nonsensical things like the maudlin agreement on Mercosur, a position adopted for electoral purposes that is detrimental to the country as a whole.

'The no to Mercosur,' commented Alvise Biffi, 'is a choice against the interests of our industry. We must have the courage not to make local choices, but to make strategic choices that will make us grow as a country in those sectors with the greatest development'.