Liguria, the latest polls head-to-head Orlando-Bucci

With the exit from the centre-left coalition by Italia Viva, after Conte's diktat, the vote on 27 and 28 October in Liguria appears anything but a foregone conclusion. It is heading towards a battle to the last vote and a photo-finish outcome. And this despite the judicial misadventures of governor Giovanni Toti. The backlash caused by Toti's decision to plea-bargain a two-year and one-month sentence seems in fact to have largely vanished

The confirmation comes from two recent polls that both describe the same scenario. The survey carried out by the Noto Institute for Porta a Porta, sees Marco Bucci, candidate of the centre-right, narrowly overtaking Andrea Orlando, candidate of the centre-left. The mayor of Genoa stands at 47.5 per cent and Orlando just below, at 47 per cent. The poll also shows that the vote is polarising. In fact, the centre-right candidate has increased his support by 1.5 per cent in seven days while the centre-left candidate has gained 1 per cent. On the other hand, the minor parties are losing support, which in seven totalled 5.5, leaving 2.5 per cent in the field compared to last week.

Another poll, carried out by BiDiMedia, gives Bucci the same percentage: 47.5 per cent against Orlando's 47 per cent and 2 per cent to Nicola Morra, former M5S senator candidate for United for the Constitution. In terms of lists, the first party is the Pd with 25.9 per cent ahead of Fratelli d'Italia with 20.2 per cent. Very well Vince Liguria, Bucci's civic list, at 10.4, ahead of the League (8 per cent) and Forza Italia (5.7 per cent). While in the wide field the M5s is given at 7% and the civic list supporting Orlando at 4%.

In short, what seemed to be an announced victory suddenly became complicated with Bucci's descent into the field and his divorce from Italia viva.