Lombardy: falling real wages and uncertainty over 2026

Real wages are another sore point: whilst it is true that wages in Lombardy – partly due to a different mix of sectors and job roles – are on average 9.4 per cent higher than the average, the higher cost of living (8.1% above the average) absorbs and cancels out almost the entire difference, whilst, in historical terms, real wages in 2023 were still lower than they were in 2008. This was a period in which market dispersion and polarisation also increased, with rises for the highest pay brackets and falls for the low and middle pay brackets.

Whilst the unemployment rate is close to an all-time low of 3 per cent, this is mainly due to the older age groups, whilst the rate amongst young people is falling.

In terms of size, there has been a gradual shift towards larger enterprises, with the average size increasing from 12 to 15 units over a 10-year period and the proportion of employees working for large companies rising from 33 per cent to 41 per cent.

The inflow of human and financial resources (40 per cent of national private equity investment is concentrated here in the region), which has therefore underpinned the region’s progress over the years, and which remains active in the field of innovation: in 2025, around half of all companies had in fact invested in advanced technologies, and in industry proper, one in three businesses was already using robotic systems.

Innovation which, as studies by the Bank of Italy highlight, is directly linked to business growth, a process facilitated (as the profile shows) by other factors such as high factor productivity, lower financial costs, a higher proportion of young directors, and the frequency of private equity and M&A transactions.

According to the report’s estimates, the outlook for 2026 therefore remains uncertain, although the first quarter saw the economy hold up overall, with growth in manufacturing and certain service sectors. In the catering and accommodation sectors, in particular, the boost from the Olympics led to a 4.4 per cent increase in the first quarter. This is based on an estimated expenditure (across Italia as a whole) of 400 million euros by the 250,000 visitors arriving for the sporting event.