Assolombarda

Lombard GDP estimates halved: +0.6% in 2026

The effects of the Gulf crisis. Biffi: 'Rising energy prices and risky supply chains affect industry'

by Luca Orlando

23 April 2026

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Brianza is definitely not doing well, with a 2026 growth rate more than halved. But the estimates for the gross domestic product are also drastically reduced elsewhere, starting with Milan and involving Lodi and Pavia in the slowdown.

Assolombarda's latest forecasting analysis (April's Economy Booklet) declines an all-round slowdown for the growth prospects of the reference area of Confindustria's largest territorial organisation, as well as for the entire region. In which, in the face of the Iranian crisis, there are greater negative repercussions than in the rest of Italia, due both to a production structure that is more subject to increases in energy and intermediate goods, and to greater exposure to international trade. Compared to January's forecasts, when Lombardy's GDP was estimated to grow by one point, the estimated growth has now almost halved to 0.6%.

The inevitable outcome of the new shock coming from the Middle East, including damage to global exports and supply chains, rising costs and inflationary fears, plummeting confidence and less investment drive.

The growth expected in Lombardy for industrial added value is halved from +0.8% to +0.4%, just as the forecast for services is corrected downwards, from +1.0% to +0.6%, with the tertiary sector held back mainly by business services and more generally by the deterioration in confidence, which, however, followed the acceleration that came with the Winter Olympics.

As is always the case, the slowdown in economic activity is initially estimated to have a milder impact on the labour market.

With expectations for regional employment in 2026 to grow by 0.3%, up from the 0.5% forecast before the conflict. The scenario here, however, was one of moderate growth after the historical record reached in 2025, with the unemployment rate now settled at a low level (3.0%).

"The conflict in the Middle East," explained Assolombarda president Alvise Biffi, "is impacting on the area's growth prospects, fuelling a phase of extreme uncertainty that risks putting a brake on the new momentum manifested at the beginning of the year. In fact, the Iranian crisis has triggered a rapid increase in energy costs and put global supply chains across the Strait of Hormuz at risk: these are critical factors that are hitting industry hard, with repercussions in Lombardy and Assolombarda's 'quadrilateral' higher than the national average, in view of the strong export-oriented manufacturing vocation. Shock arrived at a time of recovery, also supported by the flywheel of the Olympics, which will help our companies not to stop. The determination of our entrepreneurial fabric, supported by strategic investments in innovation and internationalisation, will be the key to overcoming even this complex phase'.

The most drastic reduction in growth prospects is for the Monza and Brianza area, which sees its 2026 GDP growth estimate lowered to +0.6% from the previous 1.4%. This is the result of greater exposure to the conflict area, with exports to the Gulf countries and the Middle East in general accounting for almost 5% of the area's total international sales.

Luca Orlandoinviato-caporedattore
- @lucaorlando66
Luogo: Milano
Lingue parlate: Inglese
Argomenti: Imprese, meccanica, innovazione, export, macchinari, Industria 4.0, robot
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