Long-term rental shelves pandemic and targets VAT numbers

At the end of last year, the long-term rental (Nlt) system exceeded 1.2 million vehicles in fleet, thanks to a net growth of 76 thousand units. We can therefore say that in the third post-Covid year, Nlt has now stabilised at an average growth rate of 86 thousand new contracts per year, in line if not slightly higher than the average pre-Covid growth rate from 2016, the year in which a real recovery began after a long period of stagnation that began with the Lehman crisis and continued with the Italian sovereign debt crisis.

These average trend data confirm how strongly the system is linked to the general economic trend, even more so than to fluctuations in the car market. In fact, analysing new car registrations, we observe how 2024 saw a contraction in long-term rental of 18%, equal to 75 thousand fewer units, in a car market just below the stability line. It should be remembered, however, that the comparison with 2023 discounts an abnormal concentration in that year of deliveries relating to much earlier orders, which the post-pandemic production difficulties had frozen. However, the lower purchases in no way affected either the growth of the fleet, as we have seen, or that of turnover, which increased year-on-year by almost EUR 2 billion. Approximately 1.2 billion of the increase, i.e. plus 16%, relates to the core rental business, while the remainder comes from the resale of used vehicles at the end of the rental period, which together accounts for 30% of the sector's turnover.

In addition to the mix of vehicles sold, the excellent performance of used cars undoubtedly reflects the market price trend, which was still at a good level in 2024. The more than EUR 700 million of higher revenues in the segment corresponds in fact to fewer vehicles sold, precisely because of that logic of fewer purchases and therefore fewer replacements of cars and vans that are due to expire. The latter can only in part be considered a cyclical phenomenon, linked to customer uncertainties about model and engine choices, while in a more structural sense a lengthening of replacement cycles is underway.

On the customer front, there was still growth in the small segment, i.e. Tax Codes and VAT numbers. The fleet increased by 4% but remains stable at 13% of the total Nlt, while turnover, although up by about 90 million, weighs 10% of the total, whereas it was almost 11% a year earlier. Undoubtedly this customer segment can still express enormous development potential and operators are working to define the product/service most in line with needs and habits.

The year 2025 got off to a good start. In the first quarter, turnover from rental business alone, i.e. excluding revenue from the resale of used vehicles, rose from EUR 2,093 million in the same period last year to EUR 2,304 million this year, an increase of 10%. This is certainly a good result, half of which is due to volumes: in the first quarter there were 1.293 million vehicles in the fleet compared to 1.235 million a year earlier. The other half comes from price: the ratio of turnover to fleet shows an increase in average turnover per vehicle of 5%. But there is a shadow: low fleet growth. Being a point in time figure and not annual, the comparison with the same period in 2024 does not say much about the first quarter. Instead, starting with 1.288 million vehicles already in the fleet on 31 December, just five thousand have been added in three months. Not a scorching start for a sector that adds an average of 86,000 every twelve months. Still, it's not as if they didn't buy new cars: 106,000 compared to 95,000 in the same period last year. Could it be that they were all replacements for expired contracts? There is a rumour in the trade that many are actually on the forecourts, waiting for a customer but already registered by captive hirers, who help their respective car groups to plate cars on tap to avoid Cafe fines.