Plenty of America in the wallets, Eurozone under special surveillance

A lot of the USA, a little less Asia, Europe yes but with care. On the geographical investment preferences of the participants of the 'Plus24' forum, the heart beats strongly for Trump's America, followed by China (and its environs) and, just behind, the Old Continent, which occupies the third position on the podium also due to the uncertainties arising from the war in Ukraine and the lack of strong EU leadership.

"The US," they say from Mediobanca Sgr, "will continue to benefit from the reflationary policies of the new Trump administration, with expectations of tax cuts and deregulation, as well as attractive prospects related to artificial intelligence (AI). With US equity valuations having risen, we expect earnings growth to be the main driver of gains, as well as a more balanced performance between Mag7 (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) and the remaining companies on the list, with a focus on small caps. For Europe," warns Mediobanca Sgr, "2025 will be more complex. Although equities are undervalued compared to the US, factors such as protectionist policies and the lack of strong political leadership make it more difficult to imagine a significant recovery, but potential positive catalysts remain: an end to the conflict in Ukraine and elections in Germany could pave the way for more favourable fiscal policies. For emerging markets," conclude Mediobanca Sgr, "the election of Trump could create a less favourable context and we therefore suggest a selective approach to this area, focusing on areas such as India, which is less impacted by the risk of trade wars and the dynamics of the dollar, or countries that show solid demographic profiles and attractive valuations".

"The US," explain Anima, "is also favoured due to the solidity of the macro/fundamental framework, the continuation of the Fed's round of cuts and the defensive connotation in the event of any growth criticalities emerging. We also see opportunities in the Eurozone, which has very attractive relative valuations and several possible positive catalysts (such as the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine or the rewriting of the balanced budget amendment in Germany). Underweight Japan and the UK, respectively, due to expected exchange rate appreciation and sector configuration'.

"The US," Symphonia Sgr emphasises, "remains the preferred geographic area on the equity front. US market valuations are challenging in terms of fundamentals, but we are positive because we believe the positive momentum in terms of economic growth and earnings growth is rewarding. Europe presents itself as the most critical area. Weighing negatively on European equities is the weak macroeconomic environment, with the added uncertainty surrounding the effects of the crisis in the auto sector. We believe," continue Symphonia Sgr, "that the risk of a significant downward revision of earnings growth forecasts remains.

"We believe," says Francesco Sandrini of Amundi Sgr, "that on the stock market the United States is still to be preferred, albeit on segments that have been trading less, focusing on mid-capitalisation companies. Europe offers discounted valuations, it is however at the centre of a complex geopolitical situation and for this reason we see it as a market on which to remain neutral or to focus, if using an active manager, on themes less exposed to the geopolitics of sanctions. Perhaps,' Sandrini argues, 'the small cap segment with an accommodative ECB could be a rewarding choice. Japan still seems to us to be an intact opportunity for a limited overweight, although the central bank's dynamics and thus the yen's trend should be monitored. Among the emerging markets, it probably makes sense to focus on the potential beneficiaries of geopolitical readjustment, looking constructively at India and Indonesia, despite their already high valuations. China remains an attractive low-risk option given the large losses it has already suffered'.