Lottomatica slips, online betting market down in December

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Lottomatica Group slips more than three points on the stock market, at the bottom of the main list (FTSE MIB ). According to data from the Customs and Monopolies agency, Italians' spending on online sports betting (iSport) fell to EUR 126.6 million in December, down 19% year-on-year. In particular, the month was characterised by an unfavourable payout (winnings) of 89.7 percent of the collection (down from 87.8 percent in December 2024), compared to a slightly declining collection (down 4 percent).

However, Lottomatica confirms its leadership position with market share growing to 31.3%, also considering Sportbet (a small operator of which Lottomatica acquired 20% in December). For Lottomatica, Equita's analysts estimate a drop in gross gaming revenue of 18.5% with a payout (return to players in the form of winnings, expressed as a percentage value of revenue) of 87.2% compared to 85.5% normalised.

"We expected - writes the sim - a drop around -10% reflectinga partial reversal of the favourable pay-out in November and a market share of 30%". Looking at the entire quarter (October-December), Lottomatica's online pay-out - according to Equita - will be at 85%, therefore very close to the normalised level, with an unfavourable December being offset by a favourable November. "We therefore expect fourth-quarter results, at actual payout, to be similar to those at normalised payout and we see no elements to change our estimates which point to €860m Ebitda in 2025 (consensus 858m)."

Including the iGaming figure, Intermonte estimates that "Lottomatica's Ggr in the online segment grew around 10% in Q4 2025, with a market share of 30.9%". The figure "is in line with our estimate of 9% organic growth of Ggr in the online division for the fourth quarter".