Luxury: a mixed picture in the first nine months – Zegna posts growth, whilst China weighs on Hermès

The figures for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2026 confirm that global uncertainties continue to weigh on many luxury groups. The common factor – and one of the most serious – is the slowdown in China, driven by the persistent crisis in the country’s property sector and struggling financial markets. These factors have been compounded by a recent initiative by the authorities in Beijing to tax assets held abroad, which is penalising the wealthiest customers. It is no coincidence that Global Blue, the company specialising in tax-free shopping, also notes in its ‘Luxury Shopping Insights 2026’ report, presented yesterday, that in the first half of the year the number of Chinese tourists purchasing luxury goods worldwide fell by 18 per cent.

The third-quarter results for the year confirm that the turnaround of Kering, which CEO Luca de Meo is driving forward as part of the ReconKering programme launched six months ago, is still underway: the group closed the first nine months down 2 per cent at 10.5 billion, against a stable third quarter. Gucci, which alone accounts for around half of the group’s sales, was still down 4 per cent in the third quarter. The US market proved resilient, whilst the Asia-Pacific region saw a decline, particularly in China. “Gucci’s recovery is our top priority,” reiterated de Meo, for whom efficiency and brand elevation remain the primary strategic drivers. The group plans to close a total of 125 shops by the end of the year. The figures for Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta and Brioni were positive. The Jewellery division (+12 per cent) and Eyewear division (+6 per cent) posted further growth. During the conference call with analysts, CFO Armelle Poulou said that the outlook remains highly uncertain and that the group’s margins in the second half of the year will not grow compared with the first half.

The figures for the Prada group were stronger, with the group closing the first nine months with net revenue of 4.541 billion, up 15 per cent year-on-year, and recording organic growth of 4 per cent over the nine-month period. Growth slowed in the third quarter, however, with organic growth of 1 per cent. The Milan-based group’s most important market, the Asia-Pacific region, recorded a 12 per cent increase at constant exchange rates, but performance remained stable in the third quarter, with footfall once again weak in China. Market conditions remained unchanged in Europe, whilst sales in the Americas rose by 33 per cent, offset by a sharp decline in the Middle East (-23 per cent).

Whilst the Prada brand recorded a 2 per cent rise in sales over the nine-month period – with growth falling to 1 per cent in the third quarter – Miu Miu has suffered the biggest decline: in the first nine months of 2025, the brand had grown by 41 per cent, whereas in the same period this year it recorded growth of just 1 per cent. Versace, a brand acquired by the group a year ago, reported revenues of 441 million: during a conference call, CEO Andrea Guerra emphasised that “for next year, we are aiming for a change of direction, particularly with regard to turnover and financial results”, also referring to Pieter Mulier’s debut as the brand’s creative director at the start of 2027.

For the first time in the last six years, Hermès has seen a slowdown. The French group closed the third quarter with revenue of 4.10 billion euros, up 4.3 per cent compared with the same period in 2025, when it had recorded growth of 10 per cent. Sales of ready-to-wear and accessories (which account for around a quarter of total revenue) fell by 2 per cent, whilst the leather goods division performed better (+10.8 per cent), but, according to analysts, these are overshadowed by the second-hand market, where Hermès’s iconic bags, such as the Birkin and the Kelly, are highly sought-after.