Cerved Monitor

Made in Italy sectors drive growth in 2026

Revenues expected to increase by 1.5%, above the Italian manufacturing average. Boost from exports, innovation and sustainability. Credit profile improves

by Giovanna Mancini

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

They have grown more than the average manufacturing industry over the last ten years and will manage to hold their own even in the difficult economic phase we are currently experiencing, despite the obstacles caused by US tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. There are about 76,000 companies in the made-in-Italy sectors, which generated revenues of EUR 637 billion in 2023, employing almost 2 million people and marking an increase of 4.3% compared to 2014 (compared to +3.7% for total manufacturing), as well as an overall improvement in their capital and credit profile.

The forecast for 2025-2026

The Monitor carried out by Cerved on the key sectors of Made in Italy (agrifood, fashion system, furniture and design, automation and mechanics, means of transport and pharmaceuticals) photographs "a vital ecosystem that unites companies, territories and people," comments CEO Luca Peyrano. Understanding its mechanisms and characteristics means reading the trajectory of future Italian competitiveness. The positive trend is expected to continue in the current two-year period, with a slight growth in revenues (+0.2%) in 2025, after a difficult 2024, and a more robust recovery, equal to 1.7%, in 2026, although there are differences from sector to sector.

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Cerved's projections (calculated by simulating the economic-financial performance of around 900,000 companies) see pharmaceuticals and agro-foods consolidating their positions, with annual increases of over 4% for the former and around 8% for the latter. The situation is more difficult for the means of transport sector (-1% in 2025), weighed down by the crisis in the automotive sector, and for the fashion system, which should nevertheless return to growth in 2026.

Export samples

In particular, the study highlights the strong export vocation of these companies which, although they represent just 7.8% of Italian companies, will generate 47.2% of national exports, equal to EUR 2oo billion in 2023. It is precisely this strong propensity to export that is one of the elements that has allowed the Made in Italy sectors to perform better in the past decade and that will allow them to be more competitive in the next two years as well, provided - and this is the 'warning' that emerges from the Cerved study - that companies know how to strengthen investments in innovation and sustainability, as well as diversify the outlet markets of their products to compensate for the slowdown, inevitable for many sectors, in the American market. Many are already doing this, particularly the large groups and the so-called national 'champions', turning to markets such as India, South-East Asia and Africa.

"The innovative capacity of companies will be the decisive element in order to remain competitive," Peyrano confirms, recalling the growing competition from countries such as China, which has announced huge investments in digital technologies for the coming years.

It is no coincidence that there has been a shift in growth from the sectors most traditionally associated with Italian-made products, such as fashion and furniture-design, whose growth in recent years has been strongly supported by exports, to sectors with a higher technological content, such as advanced mechanics and pharmaceuticals. It was precisely the latter that made a decisive contribution (together with some naval orders) to pushing exports of Italian products in September, which, according to ISTAT, increased by 9.9% year-on-year. And pharmaceutical companies will also be the only ones (according to the Cerved Monitor) to record an improvement in aggregate operating margins compared to revenues in the two-year period 2025-2026, while overall they will decline. Although this slight decrease in margins will be reflected in the return on invested capital, which will remain constant for the made-in-Italy sectors, while manufacturing as a whole will see a contraction of 0.3 percentage points (from 6.6% in 2024 to 6.3% in 2026).

The credit profile

The riskiness of these companies has also been gradually improving between 2014 and 2023: made-in-Italy companies placed in the 'safety area' according to Cerved indicators have increased from 14.4% to 35.7%, while those at risk have fallen from 8.6% to 6.1%. This positive trend will continue and also concerns the fashion system and furniture-design, with an increase in companies in the 'safety area' and a reduction in those in the risk area (from 9.3% to 8.2% and from 6.7% to 6%). Positive estimates also for the agro-food industry, a traditionally more fragile sector from the point of view of credit performance, which will see over 70% of companies in the security and solvency area in 2026, even if the most solid sector is confirmed to be automation and mechanics, with over 85% of companies considered secure and solvent.

Among the structural elements that guarantee greater competitiveness to Italian-made products, the Cerved study indicates that of sustainability, understood both as the exposure of companies to physical climatic and environmental risks and the risks linked to environmental transition, i.e. the transition to a zero-emission economy. Among the most exposed sectors, according to the 'scores' drawn up by the group, is the agri-food industry and, in particular, the livestock sector. Positive, on the other hand, are the evaluations regarding the environmental and social impact of Italian companies calculated by Cerved's ESG rating, which gives an 'excellent' rating to 66% of subjects, with pharmaceuticals in first place.

 

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