Fund risk

Asset management, AAA looking for a good Anima for the Italian pole

A new possible partner for Generali Investments in place of the French Natixis. If it does not go through with Intesa Sanpaolo's asset management, it could be Anima's turn

SEDE SOCIETA   ANIMA  HOLDING

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

What happens if the agreement between Natixis and Generali Investments falls through? This is the question that investment bankers and consultants have been asking themselves since the day after Mps' successful takeover of Mediobanca.

For the market, the Italo-French agreement is in fact considered to be dead in the water, barring any twists and turns. On the market, however, there are persistent rumours of a possible plan B, or rather the possibility that the asset management pole headed by Intesa Sanpaolo will take the place of Natixis. And although on Monday there was a denial by Tommaso Corcos, head of wealth management divisions at Intesa Sanpaolo ("There are no operations on the table"), this alternative on Natixis' replacement in the asset management agreement with Generali remains strong.

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Anima Hypothesis

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Meanwhile, advisors continue to develop alternative hypotheses on the future national champion of Italian asset management. And, according to rumours, there is already another potential partner for Generali Investments. It is Anima, a management company, now in the Banco Bpm group, which has assets of 200 billion euro: even in this case, adding up the assets under management, it would be just under a thousand billion euro, the threshold needed to enter the elite of international asset management companies.

The possible investiture as ceo of Mediobanca of Anima's current number one, Alessandro Melzi d'Eril, certainly does not seem to stand in the way of this hypothesis.

Finally, the potential political consensus for the possible marriage should be underlined. The wedding between Piazzetta Cuccia and Rocca Salimbeni has been blessed by the Meloni government: a national champion of asset management would certainly have the viaticum from Rome for both scenarios described (Intesa or Anima). The third wheel at the moment is Credit Agricole, which is very interested in Banco Bpm and its asset management. Finally, according to rumours, the scenarios outlined should in any case exclude the entire insurance sector.

Evolving sector

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The merger route is now the only viable one in an industry, that of asset management, that continues to face a number of structural challenges, including the erosion of returns from high-commission equity mutual funds, indigestion in private markets and operational complexity that has kept cost pressures stubbornly high.

According to McKinsey's latest analysis on the sector, the asset management industry is undergoing a decisive change: in 2024, assets under management in Europe reached EUR 28 trillion, with an annual increase close to 8% and a cumulative growth of 60% over the last decade. "A similar trend can also be observed in the Italian market," details Nunzio Digiacomo, senior partner at McKinsey, "which has grown at rates in excess of 5% per year over the last decade. Net flows in recent years, however, have been concentrated on low-margin products, such as passives, while high-margin products, with the exception of alternatives, have recorded negative net inflows".

This development has an impact on revenues. "Revenue margins in Europe are undergoing a structural contraction, falling from 36 to 31 basis points over the last decade, against operating costs that are growing in line with volumes, thus putting pressure on the industry's own profitability," Digiacomo adds. Similar trends are also evident in Italy, with a slightly smaller decline in margins: operating profitability has fallen by 10% over the last three years (compared to the -14% recorded in Europe). In this context, competitive pressure from non-European managers is intensifying: over the past five years, European asset managers have captured only 44% of net flows in the domestic market, compared to 99% for US managers. The result is a gradual undersizing of European players globally: of the seven European managers among the world's top 20 in 2007, there are now only four left'.

Those with proprietary access to distribution, scalable multi-asset alternative platforms and credible portfolio solutions prevail.

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