The Calendar

Manoeuvre 2025: all steps before approval

The government will face several crucial steps, from the presentation of the Nadef to the EU's judgement on Italy's public accounts

by Andrea Marini

La manovra quest’anno inizierà la discussione dalla Camera. (Photo by Mauro Scrobogna / LaPresse)

3' min read

3' min read

The 2025 Manoeuvre is just around the corner and the government is preparing for several crucial milestones. From the presentation of the Nadef to the EU Commission's assessment, here is what to expect in the coming months.

27 September: presentation of the NaDef

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By 27 September, the government must present the Nadef, the update note to the Economic and Financial Document (DEF). The document updates the economic and public finance forecasts contained in the April DEF (primarily the data on GDP, deficit-GDP ratio and debt-GDP ratio) that form the basis of the programmatic targets of the Manoeuvre. The note must then be approved by a resolution in each of the two chambers.

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15 October: sending the PDB to Brussels

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By 15 October, the government must transmit to the European Commission and the Eurogroup the Programmatic Budget Document (PDB), which records balances and measures contained later in the actual text of the budget law. This is the beginning of the dialogue with Brussels, which monitors the compliance of EU countries with the constraints of the EU treaties.

18 October: Fitch and S&P rating

Just a few days after the presentation of the Dpb, on 18 October will come the judgement on Italy's public accounts by the rating agencies Fitch and S&P. In its last analysis Fitch had confirmed Italy's BBB rating with a stable outlook, as had S&P, which had confirmed Italy's BBB rating with a stable outlook.

20 October: the budget bill

On 20 October there is the official presentation in parliament by the government of the budget bill, i.e. the actual manoeuvre. This is the provision that has in its belly the three-year public finance manoeuvre, with all the measures, explained in detail. The practice in recent years has been for the government to approve the Budget Bill by 20 October in the Council of Ministers, even if the actual text was then presented to the House or Senate at the end of October, if not on 1 November.

30 October: GDP Q3 2024

A much-awaited figure for the government will be the Istat preliminary estimate of GDP in the third quarter of 2024, on 30 October. The figure will make it possible to understand whether the GDP 2024 target of +1% envisaged by the government in April's Def. A figure that had been deemed optimistic and not shared, albeit by a few decimals, by the main domestic and international forecasters. But that the Istat data for the second quarter of 2024 had made it not so unattainable: Istat had already recorded an acquired change for the current year (the figure that would be obtained if the economy grew by zero in the next two quarters) equal to 0.7%. A GDP at 1 per cent in 2024 would have a positive carry-over effect also for 2025, guaranteeing the 2025 Manoeuvre greater spending margins.

EU Commission's November economic forecast

In early November, the EU Commission will present its autumn economic forecasts. This will be a crucial step: Brussels will verify Italy's compliance with its budgetary constraints based on the new parameters it will update on GDP, deficit-to-GDP ratio and debt-to-GDP ratio.

22 November: Moody's rating

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On 22 November, the rating agency Moody's, which in its last analysis of Italian debt had left the rating unchanged at Baa3, will give its verdict on Italy's public accounts.

By 30 November first EU opinion

By 30 November, the EU Commission must give an initial opinion on the Italian budget law (and on that of all the other member states), to verify adherence to the commitments made on the public finance constraints front. The Commission, as in the past, could also limit itself to giving an initial opinion by the end of November, and then give a final verdict on the manoeuvre in spring 2025.

31 December: the final OK for the Manoeuvre

This year the discussion of the budget bill will start in the Camera. Should the practice of past years be followed, it will only be Montecitorio that will have the possibility of amending the text of the Manovra. The budget bill thus corrected would return to the Senate in the run-up to Christmas (or between Christmas and the New Year) 'armoured' to receive the final OK (with confidence?). The manoeuvre would then become law to enter into force on 1 January 2025.

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