Manoeuvre, from mothers' bonus to tax cuts: what we know

The blanket is short. And the 23-25 billion euro manoeuvre that the government aims to propose will certainly start from the confirmation of the cut in the Irpef rates in force from this year and the re-proposal of the wedge reduction on low and medium wages. A renewal of the planned aid for working mothers also takes shape. Certainly a first point on the interventions to be financed will be made between Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the two vice-premiers Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini at the end of the month, on 30 August.

But it is already clear that this is a post for which resources must be found. The minister of labour, Marina Elvira Calderone and Salvini himself spoke about it to the Catholic audience at the Rimini meeting. And, if it is true that two clues do not make a proof, it is also true that the anticipations of two ministers make a quasi-certainty. "We must be prudent, we must look at the tightness of the accounts," said Minister Calderone, who spoke not only of the contribution wedge, but also of the "confirmation of interventions in favour of parenthood". Shortly before, Salvini had counted on his fingers, among the many measures, the 'three that are closest to the League's heart: the total exemption of social security contributions for working mothers with two or more children, the extension of paid parental leave to 80 per cent, and the strengthening of the nursery bonus'. The decontribution for working mothers with three or more children is already planned for the next two years. On the other hand, the possibility of this discount - worth a maximum of EUR 3,000 per month, but affecting 570,000 women with children - also expires at the end of the year for women with only two children. The attempt, last year in the manoeuvre, was to extend it further, but the resources found stopped at EUR 500 million and this led to limiting its scope.

Once again this year, the knot will be that of resources. A task that falls to the Minister of the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, who has already made an initial rounds with his various ministerial colleagues to call for spending restraint. The 23 billion for now hypothesised manoeuvre is still looking for about 10 billion resources. One of the bets will be the two-year composition agreement. The government has made it more convenient and it will be possible to adhere to it until 31 October, when the manoeuvre, which has just been passed, will have just begun its examination in Parliament. The expected revenue will be looked at and the tendential estimates can be adjusted, looking at the room for manoeuvre for further interventions, to extend the benefits now provided by the wedge and Irpef up to 35,000 euro to middle incomes.

The main road indicated by Bank of Italy governor Fabio Panetta, which passes through 'prudent management of public accounts' with the 'gradual achievement of adequate primary surpluses', finds backing in the government. 'I absolutely agree that one must be prudent,' said Minister Calderone, 'one cannot make promises that do not pay attention to the keeping of accounts. But I believe that it is important first of all to reiterate certain commitments that have been made and that we have said we want to keep, such as the reduction of the tax wedge to provide important support to families, especially those with low incomes'.

Prudence on the accounts thus makes it difficult for major interventions on the pension front. Salvini reiterated his willingness to 'aim to overcome the Fornero law' without, however, returning to talk about quota 41, which is the League's workhorse. The pensions issue certainly heats up politics, which will have to find the necessary coverage and which has not yet been defined. So much so that even indiscretions, such as those of a project on which 12 experts from the Cnel are working, which envisages raising the minimum contribution period for taking pensions from 20 to 25 years, are immediately denied outright. But they confirm the fact that the pensions yard is in full swing.