25 billion manoeuvre, fringe benefit hypothesis up to 2,000 euro for everyone. Psychologist and mothers' bonuses confirmed

The economy is growing more than other European countries, employment is on the rise, exports are booming. The economic indicators are a sign of confidence for the government. And they reinforce the conviction that the choices made over the past two years are going in the right direction. This is why the drafting of the manoeuvre menu is focusing not only on tax relief, but also on measures to support those who hire and create work. It is difficult, therefore, for the maxi-deduction for companies that hire, due to expire at the end of the year, to be renounced. While work is being done on remodulating fringe benefits, with the hypothesis of a single ceiling for all at 1,500-2,000 euro.

There will be no cuts for healthcare in the manoeuvre. Compared to the amount allocated to the sector in last year's Budget Law, totalling 5 billion, there is - according to sources - a further integration to be quantified with the Ministry of the Economy. There is a move towards refinancing the psychologist bonus, the contribution for psychotherapy expenses introduced as of 2022 and which was confirmed and made structural in the last Budget Law, but for which funding must still be found.

To define what will really go into the budget law for 2025, however, we are waiting for a more certain picture of the resources available. The estimated impact, says Economy Undersecretary Federico Freni, 'will be 25 billion'. Some more elements will be available when the Mef will have closed the work on the Budget Structural Plan (PSb), the new document that will take the place of the Nadef and define the financial framework of the manoeuvre. In addition to the multi-year programme targets to maintain the net expenditure trajectory, which for five years cannot be revised except in special cases, such as a new government or exceptional circumstances.

The new document is to be sent to Brussels by 20 September, and Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti wants to bring it to the cdm by mid-September, allowing Parliament time to examine it. The biggest challenge will be to define the targets over a five-year horizon, instead of the three years as in the public finance documents under current legislation. In addition to the condition of setting out a series of reforms and investments, in order to be able to extend the return from excessive deficit to 7 years.

In this new framework, the privatisation plan could undergo some adjustments. Already in the spring, the Defence Minister had scaled back the initial target of 1% of GDP, bringing the overall target for the three-year period 2024-26 to 0.7% (around EUR 14 billion). At the moment the haul is at 3 billion, but new moves are not excluded. In the crosshairs are Mps, Fs, Enav, Eni, but also a liberalisation of ports. While the game of Poste is becoming more foggy: the process launched in January envisaged that the State would not fall below 35%; at the end of May there was a change of course, never below 51%, with the effect of reducing the potential takings to around 2 billion. The Dpcm, however, has not yet been amended and a solution does not seem to be on the horizon. The work of the technicians meanwhile continues unabated on the simulations that the Mef will need to put the measures of the next manoeuvre down on paper.