Manoeuvre, the knot of investments for growth remains

Is there still time to turn the budget manoeuvre into a measure that can really reactivate growth? It is very difficult, especially in light of the government's struggle to find additional resources to improve the text in Parliament. This is demonstrated, for example, by the painful negotiations with the banks on the scope of their contribution.

For companies and industrial policy - including the new Transition 5.0 plan, tax credit for investments in the Special Economic Zone, funding for the New Sabatini, development contracts, and measures for internationalisation - between 8 and 9 billion were allocated for the entire three-year period covering the manoeuvre, the same amount that Confindustria thought it would be important to allocate every year until 2028.

However, it is not only an issue of resources. A logic of horizontal industry incentives prevails, with limited attention to technological innovation targeted at strategic supply chains and new areas of digitalisation. There is also no plan to support the recovery of manufacturing sectors that are disintegrating, such as the automotive and steel industries.

The pattern that has so far emerged from this budget law reflects the Meloni government's efforts to bring stability to public accounts - efforts also recognised by international institutions and observers, starting with the rating agencies - but it does not seem to be able to change the narrative of a country that, in the three-year period 2025-2027, will post a cumulative growth rate of 2%, the most modest figure in the Eurozone. A country where labour productivity in ten years has grown by an impalpable 0.7 per cent, five times less than the Eurozone average. The rising employment figures are comforting, but one cannot help but reflect on the characteristics of the jobs, with the tertiary sector leading the way while manufacturing struggles under the weight of industrial production indices recovering from a record sequence of minus signs.

That is why in the end, beyond tweaks to the manoeuvre that also seem to be in the air - for example, a simplification of the Transition 5.0 incentive plan and its extension perhaps until 2028 - the feeling remains that the three-year budget plan would have required a greater dose of courage on commitments for growth and industrial policy.