Markets: traders remain cautious in October about trends over the next six months. All eyes are on bond yields
The majority of respondents expect share prices to remain unchanged, whilst 30 per cent anticipate a fall in the indices and 25 per cent expect them to rise
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Financial market operators are taking a cautious view of stock market performance over the next six months. According to the Assiom Forex survey, carried out in October 2026 (i.e. before the US mid-term elections) amongst its members, in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, 46 per cent of respondents expect stable stock markets (compared with 53 per cent recorded in September), whilst 30 per cent anticipate a fall (up from 22 per cent previously). The proportion of those predicting a rise in the stock markets remains at around 25 per cent.
On the bond front, 55 per cent of market participants expect the BTP-Bund spread to remain at current levels (between 100 and 150 basis points), compared with 39 per cent in the previous survey. The proportion of those predicting a spread below 100 points has plummeted to 20% (from 57%). In light of the sharp rise in global bond yields in recent months, 38 per cent of respondents believe that ‘a new phase characterised by structurally higher interest rates has begun’, explains Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex. ‘This trend can be attributed to persistent inflationary pressures, global competition for capital linked in part to issuances by hyperscalers and the growth in public debt worldwide’. By contrast, 34 per cent of market participants are convinced that the market movement in question is temporary. The remaining 28 per cent expect significant fluctuations in yields, in both directions, depending on future developments in the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape.
In the foreign exchange market, “in October, the euro weakened further against the dollar: from 1.1330 at the end of September, it closed the period at 1.116”, adds Mocio. Looking ahead to the coming months, 48 per cent of respondents expect a stable euro-dollar exchange rate, compared with 43 per cent in the previous survey. Twenty-six per cent of traders expect the single currency to strengthen (down from 41 per cent previously), whilst a similar proportion (16 per cent in September) anticipate a further weakening.
