Mathematical research: a contribution of 680 billion euros to the Italian economy, equivalent to 34 per cent of GDP

“These findings demonstrate that mathematical research is a key strategic asset for our country’s competitiveness,” says Marco Vulpiani, Senior Partner and Head of Deloitte Economics. “Mathematics plays a fundamental role in our economy, both in terms of socio-economic impacts and strategic positioning. The analysis shows that indicators of economic competitiveness, such as per capita GDP and labour productivity, are positively correlated with mathematical knowledge. In a global economy increasingly based on data, artificial intelligence and process optimisation, the ability to develop and apply advanced mathematical research is therefore a critical factor for development. The cross-cutting impact of mathematics across diverse sectors suggests that investment in mathematical research is capable of generating widespread positive externalities, further amplifying the return on public investment.”

However, this positive trend is offset by a significant gap in terms of investment: Italia allocates only 1.3 per cent of its GDP to research and development, compared with a European average of 2.26 per cent; this gap is also evident when considering university spending alone and public expenditure on education, where Italia consistently ranks last amongst the major European countries under consideration (France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands), both at tertiary level and across all levels of education from pre-primary to tertiary.

Although investment in research is lower than the European average, in terms of scientific output, Italia achieves results of the highest calibre: when compared with France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands, it ranks first for author productivity in mathematical publications, with almost 200 publications per 1,000 authors, and second for the number of citations received, with an average of around 89,000 citations per year.
The link between research and applied innovation, however, is weaker: Italia ranks last among the five countries analysed for collaboration between universities and businesses in the mathematical disciplines, with only 3.4 per cent of publications produced in collaboration with a corporate or industrial co-author – roughly half the figure for Germany and the Netherlands. The same gap emerges in the area of patents, where Italia records just over 2 citations received from patents per 1,000 authors, compared with over three in Germany, the Netherlands and France: a sign of a lower propensity, compared with these countries, to use scientific publications as a basis for developing patents and, more generally, for technology transfer from academic research to the industrial sector.

AI is now one of the most significant applications of mathematical research, for which it forms the theoretical foundation, and an increasingly important driver of growth for the Italian economy. According to estimates by Censis-Confcooperative, by 2035 it could generate a 1.8 per cent increase in national GDP, equivalent to around 38 billion euros, whilst the adoption of generative AI could boost the country’s productivity by up to 18.2 per cent over the next fifteen years, compared with a 1 per cent decline recorded between 1995 and 2023. Its uptake among Italian businesses is accelerating rapidly: by 2025, 16.4 per cent of companies with at least ten employees will already be using at least one AI technology, compared with 8.2 per cent in 2024, with large enterprises reaching 53.1 per cent and SMEs doubling to 15.7 per cent. However, fully capitalising on these opportunities remains dependent on strengthening skills: in 2024, the number of graduates in STEM subjects had risen to 18 per 1,000 residents aged between 20 and 29, but basic digital skills remain widespread among only 45.9 per cent of the population, compared with a European average of 55.6 per cent.

In terms of education, the last decade has seen a steady increase in the number of students enrolling in and graduating from science disciplines related to mathematics, alongside a rise in the number of PhDs in Mathematical Sciences, which grew by an average of 3.6 per cent per year between 2017 and 2024.

Media attention towards mathematical research in Italia has grown steadily over the last decade: the number of articles on the subject rose from 88 in 2015 to 812 in 2024, representing an average annual increase of 28 per cent, which cannot be attributed to a general rise in the volume of news coverage. The prevailing tone is neutral (73 per cent) or positive (26 per cent), with negative sentiment being entirely marginal (1 per cent); both positive and neutral sentiment are growing more rapidly than negative sentiment, confirming a solid and strengthening reputation. In terms of content, the most recurring theme remains ‘Schools and universities’, with over 1,100 articles over the decade, confirming the association of mathematics with the educational and training context, followed by ‘work and businesses’; the theme linked to ‘artificial intelligence and quantum computing’, whilst less frequent in absolute terms, is the one that has grown most rapidly, with an average annual increase of 64 per cent, reflecting the increasingly central role that mathematics is playing in the development of new technologies.