Letter to savers

Mattel: not just Barbie – more films and theme parks to boost turnover

The US toy giant wants to build an integrated, global ecosystem around its brands. There is a risk of high investment costs and tariffs

Mattel sede California. (Imagoeconomica)

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

A market on hold. This sums up investors’ current approach to Mattel. This stock market environment is, amongst other things, a consequence of the long-term performance of the US toy giant.

The setting

“Between 1981 and the present day,” explains independent technical analyst Silvio Bona, “the feature that stands out when looking at the chart is the existence of a so-called double top.” In other words: the share price reached the $42 mark in June 1998, before falling and then ‘rising again to around $47 in December 2013’. From there, the shares fell again, reaching “a low of around $6.6 in 2020”. Subsequently, largely in the wake of the boom in demand for toys during the Covid pandemic, ‘the share price quickly began to rise again, reaching a five-year high of around $27’. However, since then, Mattel has been experiencing a ‘period of consolidation’ on the stock market. To put it another way: “it is locked in a sideways trend which, excluding the latest low recorded this year, has – on the one hand – a static support level around $16; and, on the other, a medium-term static resistance level situated in the $27 range”. Now the market “could, hypothetically, break out of this situation by moving higher. Obviously,” concludes Bona, “the first major hurdle is precisely the $27 level.” On the downside, however, “the level around $16 must be monitored.”

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SEMESTRI A CONFRONTO

Dati in milioni di dollari al 30/06/2024 e 2025

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The profit and loss account

Setting aside the individual figures, it is clear that Mattel’s stock market performance reflects the market’s expectations regarding the company’s business development. The Barbie group’s business – even in terms of its profit and loss account – does not appear to have taken a clear direction in recent times. To see this, one need only analyse the latest figures. First and foremost are revenues, broken down into four areas: Dolls (including Barbie), Vehicles (which includes the legendary Hot Wheels), children’s toys and Action Figures (toys linked to films or TV series). In this regard, Mattel has experienced a mixed half-year, with ‘gross billings’ – an internal metric measuring the gross value of orders to retailers – varying across different product categories.

Dolls, the group’s long-standing business area, saw a decline: following a stable first quarter of 2025 at $296.6 million (+2% at constant exchange rates compared with the same period in 2024), sales in the second quarter plummeted by 19 per cent, impacted – amongst other things – by the slowdown in Barbie sales in North America.

The Infant, Toddler & Preschool sector is also struggling: between early January and late March, the division fell by 6 per cent, before plunging further (–25 per cent) in the second quarter.

RICAVI E DIVISIONI

Gross billings per II trim 2024 e II trim 2025. In milioni di dollari

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Action figures on the rise

The other two divisions, however, performed well. Action Figures, Building Sets, Games & Other have confirmed their current role as drivers of growth. In the first quarter of 2025, the category recorded gross billings of 192.7 million (+14 per cent). On closer inspection, this trend proved even stronger in the second quarter, with turnover jumping by 16 per cent.

The Vehicles segment also saw growth, with turnover rising by 6 per cent and 10 per cent in the first and second quarters of 2025 respectively. In short: the first half of the financial year confirmed the polarised performance of Mattel: on the one hand, Action Figures and Vehicles are expanding; on the other, Dolls are struggling after a stable start, and Infant & Preschool is in structural decline. This divergence in business performance is, in fact, reflected in the share price’s performance on the stock market.

FATTURATO E AREE GEOGRAFICHE

Gross billings per II trim 2024 e II trim 2025. In milioni di dollari

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So far, we have looked at the first line of the profit and loss account: but what is the state of the company’s profitability? In the first quarter of 2025, the adjusted gross margin stood at 49.6 per cent, whilst in the second quarter the figure was 51.2 per cent. Operating profit (also adjusted) followed this trend: between the start of the year and the end of March, a loss of 16 million was recorded, whilst in the last quarter, a profit of 88 million was posted. In terms of the half-year results, these figures indicate, on the one hand, an increase in the gross margin compared with the same period in 2024; and, on the other, a slight decline in adjusted EBIT (-1 per cent). Once again: figures lacking a clear trajectory, reflected in the share price’s sideways movement and investors’ anticipation of a genuine turnaround in the business.

All-round entertainment

Yes, the turning point. But what are the group’s priorities for reviving the business – in a difficult market for toys? Here, amongst other things, it is worth highlighting a clear strategic shift by the company: Mattel has moved from being a simple manufacturer of dolls and toys to a company managing entertainment franchises. The focus is on enhancing the value of the brands in its portfolio (from Barbie to Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price and Masters of the Universe) through various channels: traditional toys, cinema, TV, digital media and theme parks. The idea is to build an integrated, global ecosystem around the brands, with the aim of broadening and deepening the emotional connection with fans and consumers on multiple levels. In this regard, one priority – in contrast, for example, to Hasbro – is the growth of in-house media content. On this front, last June Mattel revamped its approach to film, bringing film and TV under a single umbrella called Mattel Studios. This initiative is expected, amongst other things, to lead to the release – in June 2026 – of the ambitious *Masters of the Universe*, a high-budget live-action film (around 200 million). But that’s not all. As for theme parks, Mattel is building its first Mattel Adventure Park in Glendale, Arizona. The project has been postponed several times, but it is now expected to open by the end of 2025.

LA DINAMICA DELLA REDDITIVITÀ

In % il trend del Gross Profit e la contribuzione delle varie aree

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Capex risk

So, is it all as easy as playing with a Barbie, then? The reality is more complicated. Several analysts point out that Mattel’s approach is capital-intensive. To put it another way: in a climate where profit margins are low, the idea of a company investing money in something that isn’t its true and usual core business raises eyebrows. True! The 2023 Barbie film may be a success story. However, replicating that result is no easy feat. More generally, though, the company – and this is nothing new – is pursuing a programme to cut costs and optimise operations. The aim is to achieve annual savings of around 200 million by 2026. Of this, around 40 per cent is expected to come from cuts in general and administrative expenses. The remaining 60 per cent, on the other hand, stems from specific rationalisation measures. Last financial year, savings totalled 83 million, whilst the target – against which the company says it is on track – is to achieve savings of 80 million. Market participants – understandably – welcome this effort (1.2 per cent), which – together with improved stock management (0.6 per cent) and the product mix (0.6 per cent) – the main contributor to the improvement in the gross margin at the end of the second quarter of 2025.

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Share price performance

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Brand connect

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