Letter to the saver

Mattel, not only Barbie: more films and theme parks to boost sales

The US toy giant wants to build an integrated global ecosystem around its brands. There is the risk of high investments and tariffs

by Vittorio Carlini

Mattel sede California. (Imagoeconomica)

5' min read

5' min read

A market on standby. This is how investors' current approach to the stock of Mattel can be summarised. A stock market environment that, among other things, is a consequence of the long-term dynamics of the US toy giant.

The scenario

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'Between 1981 and today,' explains independent technical analyst Silvio Bona, 'the figure that jumps out at you, looking at the chart, is the existence of a so-called double maximum'. That is: the stock reached the $42 area, in June 1998, only to fall and then 'rise again to around $47 in December 2013'. From there, the stock fell again, reaching 'a low at around $6.6 in 2020'. Thereafter, especially in the wake of the boom in demand for toys during the period of the Covid pandemic, 'the stock quickly rebounded to a five-year high of around $27'. Well: since then Mattel has been experiencing a 'moment of congestion' on the stock market. Said differently: 'it is inserted in a lateral trend that, net of the last minimum marked this year, on the one hand has - as static support - the level around 16 dollars; and, on the other, boasts resistance - always static in the medium term - positioned in the 27 dollar area'. Now the market 'could hypothetically get out of this situation by going upwards. Obviously,' Bona concludes, 'the first major obstacle is precisely the $27 level. On the downside, on the other hand, the level around 16 dollars must be "monitored."

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SEMESTRI A CONFRONTO

Dati in milioni di dollari al 30/06/2024 e 2025

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The Profit and Loss Account

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Net of the individual numbers, it is clear how Mattel's performance on the stock market precisely configures the market's expectations regarding business development. An activity - that of the Barbie group - which also at the level of the profit and loss account does not seem to have - in the last period - taken a precise direction. To realise this, it is sufficient to analyse the most recent numbers. Firstly the revenues, divided into four areas: Dools (the dolls where Barbie is), Vehicles (to which the legendary Hot Whells are traced), children's toys and Action Figures (toys linked to films or TV series). On this front Mattel experienced a two-speed semester, where gross billings - an internal metric that measures the gross value of orders to retailers - differed according to product categories.

Dolls, the group's historical area, showed a decline: after a stable first quarter of 2025 at $296.6 million (+2% at constant exchange rates compared to the same period in 2024), sales fell by 19% in the second quarter, penalised - among other things - by the slowdown of Barbie in North America.

The world of Infant, Toddler & Preschool also struggled: between the beginning of January and the end of March, the division gave up 6% and then slumped further (-25%) in the second quarter.

RICAVI E DIVISIONI

Gross billings per II trim 2024 e II trim 2025. In milioni di dollari

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Rise in Action Figures

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Positive, however, were the other two divisions. Action Figures, Building Sets, Games & Other, confirmed their current role as growth drivers. In the first quarter of 2025, the category recorded gross billings of EUR 192.7 million (+14%). This trend was even more robust in the second quarter, with turnover jumping 16%.

Then there was growth in the Vehicles themselves, where sales rose by 6 and 10 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters of 2025. In short: the first half of the financial year confirmed the polarisation of Mattel's performance: on the one hand Action Figures and Vehicles in expansion; on the other Dolls in difficulty after a stable start, and Infant & Preschool in structural decline. A division of the business trend which - precisely - is reflected in the share price trend on the stock exchange.

FATTURATO E AREE GEOGRAFICHE

Gross billings per II trim 2024 e II trim 2025. In milioni di dollari

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So far, some considerations regarding the first line of the income statement: but what is the health of profitability? In Q1 2025 the adjusted Gros margin was 49.6%, while in Q2 the indicator was 51.2%. Operating profit (again adjusted) had the following dynamics: between the beginning of the year and the end of March, a loss of EUR 16 million was posted, while in the last quarter, the black was EUR 88 million. At the half-yearly level, these numbers imply, on the one hand, the increase in the gross margin compared to the same period in 2024; and, on the other hand, the slight decline in adjusted EBIT (-1%). Again: figures without a clear trajectory, which are represented by the stock's sideways trend and investors' expectation for a real turnaround in the business.

All-round entertainment

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Yes, the turning point. But what are the group's priorities for relaunching - in a difficult market context for toys - the business? Here, among other things, a precise choice of the company's field must be underlined: Mattel has gone from being a simple manufacturer of dolls and games to a company managing entertainment franchises. The focus is on enhancing the brands in its portfolio (from Barbie to Hot Wheels to Fisher-Price and Masters of the Universe) through different channels: traditional toys, cinema, TV, digital, theme parks. The idea is to build an integrated and global ecosystem around the brands in order to extend and deepen the emotional connection with fans and consumers on multiple levels. In this sense, a priority - in antithesis to, for example, Hasbro - is growth in home-grown media content. On this front, Mattel last June renewed its approach to film, consolidating film and TV under a single umbrella called Mattel Studios. An effort that, among other things, should lead - in June 2026 - to the release of the ambitious 'Masters of the Universe', a high-budget (around 200 million) live-action. Not only that. With respect to theme parks, Mattel is building its first Mattel Adventure Park in Arizona (Glendale). The site has been postponed several times but is now scheduled to open by the end of 2025.

LA DINAMICA DELLA REDDITIVITÀ

In % il trend del Gross Profit e la contribuzione delle varie aree

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The Capex Risk

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All as easy as playing with a Barbie, then? The reality is more complicated. Several analysts point out that Mattel's approach is capital intensive. Put differently: in an environment that allows low margins, the idea that a company invests money in what is not its real and usual core business turns one's nose up at it. True! The case of the 2023 Barbie film may be a successful example. And, however, replicating that result is not easy. More generally, however, the company - not as of today - is pursuing a project to reduce costs and optimise operations. The goal is to reach about 200 million in annual savings in 2026. Of this, about 40 per cent should come from cuts in general and administrative expenses. The remaining 60 per cent, on the other hand, is the prerogative of specific rationalisation measures. last year the savings amounted to EUR 83 million, while the target - against which the company says it is in line - is to achieve savings of EUR 80 million. Operators - clearly - appreciate the effort in question (1.2%) which is - together with improved inventory management (0.6%) and product mix (0.6%) - the biggest contributor to the improvement in gross margin at the end of the second quarter of 2025.

Brand connect

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