McLaren to title, Red Bull to fiction: Formula 1 at the halfway mark

The weeks between Silverstone and Spa-Francorchamps have shown how Formula 1 is also able to attract attention outside of racing. The great Max-Toto-George-Christian soap opera has reached a major breaking point, namely the divorce between Horner and Red Bull, after 20 years of love and success. Yet, we remain hanging on a cliff hanger worthy of the best TV series: what is Verstappen's future? Is Horner's farewell linked to the inability to retain Max, after the various pawns lost as recently as Newey? Or, on the contrary, is it the result of a push by the Verstappen family to stay at Red Bull? At the time of writing, there is much speculation and few facts to answer.

Moreover, to these questions can be added many others, such as Horner's future destination (Aston Martin?) or whether his successor Laurent Mekies is a definitive or provisional choice. In short, a summer Formula One that promises to be interesting off the track, a season that usually concerns the drivers' market and is labelled 'silly season' but which now more than ever includes the pivotal figures of the teams, namely the team principals. Moreover, this "silly season" will be very indicative to understand the first steps of the next change of the chessboard in 2026, where the entry of a new team (Cadillac) and new engine manufacturers (Audi, Honda, Ford), within the perimeter of a new technical regulation, will strongly redraw the current balances. In all this, the mother question for Ferrari fans concerns the future of Ferrari Team Principal Fred Vasseur, about whom, in view of the expiry of his contract at the end of 2025, Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna told Sky microphones: 'it's July, there is time'.

Horner's farewell is a reflection of discontent surrounding Red Bull since the start of last season. In February 2024, just weeks before the start of the championship, Horner was accused by a Red Bull employee of inappropriate behaviour. Although an internal investigation commissioned by Red Bull GmbH ends with the charges being dropped, the case ends up in the international media spotlight. The situation precipitates with the anonymous release of an allegedly compromising chat, further fuelling tensions and speculation.

The media pressure is becoming unbearable and internal tensions are rising, with prominent figures within the team, including Jos Verstappen, Max's father, going so far as to publicly accuse Horner. In an interview with the Dutch press, Jos declared: 'There will be tension as long as Horner stays. The team is in danger of splitting. It can't go on like this: he is playing the victim, while he is the one creating problems'.

These fractures, visible even from the outside, compromised the team's work and seemed to be reflected in its performance on the track: in 2024, Red Bull, while remaining competitive, could no longer dominate with the same continuity as in previous seasons. A few months later comes another twist: Adrian Newey, the aerodynamics wizard behind Red Bull's successes, leaves Horner's team. Newey's exit represents the strongest sign of a profound and probably irreversible change within the team and joins other key figures who have left the Red Bull project: Rob Marshall, Jonathan Wheatley, Dan Fallows and Lee Stevenson.

The British team principal leaves a team that he has led since his Formula 1 debut in 2005 with eight drivers' championship wins (four with Sebastian Vettel and four with Max Verstappen) and six constructors' championships to his credit. Glorious results.

The separation from Horner marks the end of a legendary era for Red Bull. His words following his removal from his role reported to Sky UK: 'Yesterday I was informed by Red Bull that operationally I will no longer be involved with the company or the team from after this meeting. I will continue to work for the company, but from an operational point of view the baton will pass. And of course it was a shock for me, but what I had time to do was to reflect on the last 12 hours. And I wanted to be here in front of all of you to give you this news and to express my gratitude to every single member of the team who has given so much over the last 20 and a half years since I've been here. When I arrived 20 years ago, with a few grey hairs less, and joined the team, I didn't know what to expect, but I was immediately welcomed. And from two dilapidated buildings, we started to build what would become a powerhouse in Formula 1. What awaits us with the new engine is really exciting: I will be very sorry not to be here to see its performance.

Now, as mentioned, the rumours begin as to what Horner's future will be: they range from the extreme option of a farewell to the sport, to envisaging his arrival at Ferrari in place of Vasseur whose contract expires this very year, or as team principal of the eleventh team in Formula 1 next season, namely Cadillac. Meanwhile, let's take a look at who the current ten team principals of Formula 1 are.

After Christian Horner's departure from Red Bull, Toto Wolff remains the only team principal with long experience at the team he governs. Indeed, lately a continuous series of revolving doors has meant that there has been a fast turnover and some talented engineers have made very quick career jumps. One thinks of Laurent Mekies who in the space of a couple of years went from Maranello to Faenza (Racing Bulls) to now settle in Milton Keynes. But also Vowles, a great Mercedes strategist, launched into the top role at Williams from 2023.

What emerges from the comparison of team principals is the dominance of engineers, with the sole exceptions of Wolff and Briatore, and European nationality (with the exception of Ayo Komatsu). They are also only men around 50 years of age, with the exception of Alpine's de facto team principal.

On the Ferrari side, as mentioned, the situation of Fred Vasseur is hot, given the expiring contract and the results that the French engineer, in charge from 9 January 2023 as General Manager and Team Principal of the prancing horse, is obtaining. Results neither bad nor good, in short, the same trend that Ferrari has been following for a long time: always there, second or third in the constructors' championship, and with few concrete expectations regarding the drivers' title.

Much of the pressure on Vasseur's shoulders is related to the high expectations regarding Ferrari. The bar must always be set high, and the press and fans follow suit. But the world's most passionate Formula 1 fanbase, perhaps the most important asset of the Scuderia di Maranello, has to face reality: in the last fifteen years, the best car has been had by others. And perhaps that is why, now more than ever, there is talk of engineers rather than drivers in this summer of 2025. But let's look at how the performance of the Vasseur management compares to previous ones.

Analysing the placing of the Ferrari drivers and the Scuderia under the management of some of the Red team principals, Vasseur's performance is on average linear. From 2008 to date, the worst result for Scuderia Ferrari was undoubtedly the 2020 championship, under Mattia Binotto's management: sixth place in the Constructors' standings, with Sebastian Vettel thirteenth and Charles Leclerc eighth among the drivers. Other disappointing results were recorded in 2009 under Stefano Domenicali, just the year after winning the last constructors' title, and in 2014 under the brief management of Marco Mattiacci.

In eight out of seventeen seasons, Ferrari has finished second among constructors. These included three seasons under Arrivabene, two under Binotto, one under Domenicali, and 2024, Vasseur's best year. If we look at average points per GP, the best was Arrivabene with 23.7 points per weekend. Vasseur is not far behind, with 22 points, but it has to be considered that Vasseur drives Ferrari in an era when 6 Grands Prix of the season follow the sprint format with more points awarded. The Binotto era, heavily influenced by the 'motorone' case, saw only 18.4 points collected per GP. It is impossible to directly compare the Domenicali management in terms of points, because the scoring system has changed since then.

Building a winning project in Formula 1 is not immediate. It requires time, vision, in-depth knowledge of the team's internal dynamics and the ability to optimise every technical and human detail. Vasseur has started a reorganisation process that, already in the second half of last season, showed encouraging signs with a more competitive Ferrari.

There is no shortage of support for the French engineer's management, as seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton told the British press: 'First of all, I love working with Fred. Fred is the main reason why I am in this team and why I had the opportunity to be here, and for that I will be forever grateful to him. We are in this together. Things are not perfect for me but I am here to work with the team and also with Fred. I want Fred here. I think Fred is the person you can take to the top'. At the same time, the obsession of Lewis, and of all Ferrari fans, is one: to win.

With the 2025 season bound to bring some scant satisfaction, the Ferrari world is strongly oriented towards the new technical cycle, so as not to make vain the direction outlined by John Elkann, with words spoken in 2022 and carved in stone: 'By 2026 Ferrari will win the world championship'. As mentioned in other articles, the choice of confirmation comes down to the performance of the 2026 project, a revolution not only in aerodynamics but also in the engine. All that remains for Ferrari fans, therefore, is to hope for the confirmation of Fred Vasseur, because that would be synonymous with positive expectations on the interpretation of the new technical cycle.

In the meantime, the cars restart their engines for one of the most eagerly awaited weekends of the season, which this year will feature the sprint format. At Spa the fans will be able to enjoy a double round of qualifying and racing. The action starts with sprint qualifying on Friday at 4.30pm. Saturday will see the 100km race at noon, while standard qualifying is at 4pm. Sunday's race will be run at 3pm.