Mediobanca, war fears, but furniture in 2026 forecasts growth

Larger companies, or those that are more structured and have modern and efficient governance models, but companies belonging to production chains are the ones that have the greatest chance not only to grow, but also to cope with uncertain and complex periods such as the current one.

This is true for the entire Italian manufacturing industry, but even more so for a sector such as furniture and lighting, which is characterised by great production excellence, but also by extreme fragmentation and organisational and managerial models that are not always efficient.

The new research on the sector, carried out by Mediobanca's research area on the occasion of the Milan Furniture Fair starting next Tuesday, in fact takes into consideration 530 companies with a turnover of more than 10 million Euro, which together express an aggregate turnover of 19.9 billion Euro (in 2024), with an export share of 43% and more than 61 thousand employees, representing more than 60% of the overall market of the sector.

The survey puts in black and white the better performance of these realities compared to the industry average: in fact, the companies surveyed state that they closed 2025 with an overall turnover up by 1.3% compared to 2024 and with foreign sales up by 1.8%. In particular, companies with a turnover in excess of 100 million euro have recorded a performance that is "significantly better than the average", stress Mediobanca analysts, with a 3.1% growth in sales and a 3.3% increase in exports.

And even for 2026, despite the war in Iran and its heavy (as yet unquantifiable) effects on the world economy, the sample companies express 'predominantly positive, albeit cautious' expectations, the study says. In fact, 63% of the companies expect an increase in overall turnover, while a smaller proportion expect stability (15%) or a contraction (22%). "Overall, the estimates return a scenario of gradual and contained growth, with an expected average increase of 0.8% for total sales and 0.2% for exports," explain Mediobanca. However, the sector's development prospects for 2026-2027 will be conditioned by the macroeconomic context: given the sector's strong propensity to export, 88.5% of companies believe that an improvement in international economic stability is a necessary prerequisite for growth.