Letter to the saver

Meta detaches the dividend, but the real revolution is artificial intelligence

A coupon will be issued for the first time. The group has reduced costs, focusing on its historical business. The risk is on the regulatory front

by Vittorio Carlini

6' min read

6' min read

On the one hand, the restructuring of the business, largely behind us, and the announcement of the first dividend. On the other, the push on artificial intelligence to optimise products. All this with the sword of Damocles of regulatory tightening in various jurisdictions. These are among the conditions that characterise the business of Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook).

The Stock Exchange Accounts

.

The group, founded by Mark Zuckerberg, recently released its numbers for the last quarter of 2023. The figures were positive and above expectations. Global sales rose to USD 40.1 billion (+22% compared to the same period in 2022 and at constant exchange rates). Net profit, for its part, stood at USD 14.017 billion (it had been USD 4.6 billion twelve months earlier). The stock market appreciated the accounts, so much so that - in the single session following the quarterly report in which its first dividend was also announced - Meta gained over 20%. A performance that has pushed the share price further into 2024: since the beginning of the year, the rise has reached 37.6% (closing on 27/2/2024). The rally, however, is not limited to the most recent months. Looking at the last year, the former Facebook has a positive result of 178.4%. Is this surprising? The answer is negative. The decision to restructure and streamline the business - as well as to take advantage of artificial intelligence (AI) - had a favourable effect on the income statement for 2023. For the whole year, the turnover is EUR 134.9 billion, an increase of 16% compared to 2022. Net profitability, a consequence of the same cost streamlining, rose by 69%, while the operating margin increased from 25% two years ago to 35% at 31/12/2023. In short: the dynamics of the fundamentals have, to some extent, followed - and supported - the stock on the list.

Loading...

The reorganisation

.

The main elements of the described scenario include two aspects: the first is the re-focusing, at the expense of the Metaverse (at least in the short term) on the core business of apps (from Facebbok to Instragram to WhatsApp). The second is precisely the slimming-down cure imposed on the company from 2022 and pursued vigorously in 2023 (the year of 'efficiency').

ESERCIZI A CONFRONTO

Loading...

Precisely on the latter front, the grounding of the various measures can, in an indirect manner, be deduced from cost dynamics. In general, last year's operating expenses - despite the growth in turnover - remained more or less unchanged (+0.5%). The dynamic in question, on closer inspection, is the effect of a mix of causes. On the one hand, there is the expansion of expenditure on data centres and technical infrastructure (cost of sales). On top of this is the increased expenditure on research and development. On the other hand, as a counterbalance, one has to remember the decrease of outlays in marketing and administrative overheads. Overall - also bearing in mind the dismissal of some 20,000 employees - the strategy seemed reasonable to the market. Quite apart from the fact that the stock market (unfortunately) always 'likes' the reduction of the workforce base, investors rewarded the willingness to keep the bar straight on technological aspects and, on the contrary, to contain expenditure in less vital areas.

RICAVI E SEGMENTI OPERATIVI

Loading...

Back to tradition

.

Just as the market appreciated the re-focusing, after the Metaverse hangover - which led to the company's name change - on traditional activities. Namely: the family of various social networks (from Facebook to Instagram to the WhatsApp app).

True! In the last quarter of 2023, the revenues of Reality Labs (Metaverse area) showed a positive sign, rising above the billion mark for the first time - in a single quarter -. And yet, operating losses remain high. In the full year 2023, the division's red is 16.1 billion (it had been 13.7 in 2022). The figure - on closer inspection - is the effect also, and above all, of a technology that is not sufficient to enable extreme virtual reality as comprehensively as the company had assumed. A Metaverse that, in its current form, has led the group, while maintaining the project and investments for the medium to long term, to backtrack.

REDDITIVITÀ E SEGMENTI OPERATIVI

Loading...

Cedola and doubts

However, with the presentation of its latest quarterly report, Meta pulled the most classic rabbit out of its hat. It announced the first dividend in its history: $2 per share - on an annual basis - with payment on 26 March. The stock market appreciated. And yet, there are also those who have raised doubts. The concern is that, in doing so, resources will be diverted from technological development to satisfy the - short-term - desires of shareholders (large and small). 'I do not see this risk,' says Giacomo Calef, country manager of NS Partners. 'In 2024, capital expenditure is estimated at between 30 and 37 billion dollars. That is: up by '2 billion, compared to the previous ceiling'. This is an increased effort to support the hi-tech evolution of the infrastructure that will have to embrace the Artificial Intelligence revolution. In short: there is no industrial myopia in favour of financial management of the business. "If anything," Calef resumes, "the dividend is in part a compensation for the lack of revenues, with the consequent lower earnings per share, linked to the Metaverse. Having said that, however, it can be further objected that the coupon is a sign of a company that considers itself mature and is destined for less growth. 'This is not so,' ClearBridge Investment retorts in a note, 'The choice, together with the expansion of the buy back plan (today up to 81 billion is available for new purchases, Ndr) is an expression of a better and easier management of the financial structure. The group's own 'growth forecasts are proof of this'.

So far, some considerations on the new shareholder remuneration and operational efficiency. On closer inspection, however, the real challenge for the company remains Artificial Intelligence. A first front, with respect to which Meta has already said it receives help from AI, is marketing optimisation. The group, both in the wake of the introduction of laws in Europe such as the Gdpr and because of systems such as Apple's Tracking Transparency, has suffered limitations in advertising. Artificial Intelligence - think for instance of the Advantage+ solution that exploits machine learning - is an important support in this respect. Not only that. The prospect is also to leverage AI 'in order to improve,' Calef resumes, 'the ability of platform users to create videos and content. Meta, thus, could become central to a sort of 'pay per view' formula, in which the social community is both 'producer and consumer of digital content'. More. The group uses Artificial Intelligence, as well as for the cybersecurity of platforms, in the development of increasingly advanced chat bots (in 2024 there should be the launch of Llama 3) and solutions to create immersive experiences in augmented reality and virtual reality (the 'mystical' Metaverse is not being abandoned). In short: it is clear how strongly the group is staking its chips on AI.

IL CRUSCOTTO DEL TITOLO

Loading...

Rules and Regulations

All as easy as drinking a glass of water, then? The reality is more difficult. In the conference call on the latest quarterly figures, Meta itself dwells on the subject of the evolution of EU and US regulations on the one hand, and on the request by the Federal Trade Commission to modify the 'consent order' reached with the company on the other. The US Commission, among other things, wants to prohibit Meta from profiting from data collected from users under the age of 18, even through its virtual reality products. Clearly, beyond specific situations, the regulatory node may impact the company's business and, therefore, its stock on the stock market. 'In reality,' Calef concludes, 'such issues, also because the pervasiveness of social in daily life is high, are well present in the minds of analysts'. Consequently, 'the quotations already partly discount such risks'. That said, however, the do-it-yourself investor must take this into account. Not least because the stock has run up a lot over the past 12 months and its Beta to the S&P500 is over unity. On the other hand, it is useful to remember that the prospective p/e on 2024 is - according to Bloomberg - 23.9 times. A figure, compared to the last decade, within the range that has the maximum ceiling of 81.1 (2015) and the minimum base of 11.9 (2022).

Share trend

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti