Mfe wants to tighten the timetable for a new Prosiebensat (cutting estimates)

On the day when Mfe celebrates the takeover of 75.6 per cent of Prosieben with the 'settlement', the successful handover of shares, a (yet another and not entirely unexpected) cold shower arrives from Unterföhring: the Bavarian broadcaster cuts its estimates for 2025, signalling that the economy in the German-speaking area remains fragile.

The new outlook speaks for itself: expected revenues of between EUR 3.65 billion and EUR 3.8 billion, down from the previously indicated EUR 3.85 billion; adjusted EBITDA is now estimated at between EUR 420 million and EUR 470 million, well below the EUR 520 million initially put on the table. Inevitable consequence: expected leverage rises to 3-3.5 times, against the target of 2.5-3 times.

The heart of the problem is advertising. September is proving weaker than expected, and the first indications for October also confirm the negative trend.

It is in this scenario that the Mediaset group officially takes the lead in operations. "The last quarter will mark the beginning of Prosieben's consolidation," explained Marco Giordani, cfo of the group led by a Pier Silvio Berlusconi whom the German press is re-evaluating, valuing him as a manager who thus distances him from the politician Silvio Berlusconi, used over the years, on the German side, to put up a wall with respect to Cologno's impulses, during a meeting with analysts.

Other messages also emerged from the meeting: no 'domination agreement' (which would allow the transfer of profits) in the next 12 to 16 months, no delisting, but also the willingness to tighten up on the supervisory board (which in Prosiebensat appoints the board of directors) in order to bring governance into line with the new structure. 'We are waiting to see if any director decides to resign,' the cfo pointed out. No names have been mentioned, but the reference to Christoph Mainusch and Klára Brachtlová is clear: the two members representing the Czech holding company Ppf who joined the Mfe offer, leaving Prosiebensat. If this does not happen, Giordani has been clear: he will not wait until the general meeting to reshuffle the roster of four out of nine board members who are Mfe expressions.