Forecasts

M&;G: geopolitical instability rewards Europe's attractiveness

The Global Real Estate Outlook for 2026 was presented in London. The Continent is once again in the crosshairs of investors from Asia and the Middle East, thanks to stability, low inflation, a shortage of supply, rising rents and investments in defence and security. But mainly due to uncertainty in the US

la City di Londra

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

It will be a good year for the real estate sector, without fireworks but with growth and stability: this is the conviction of the experts of M&G who presented today in London theGlobal Real Estate Outlook for 2026.

'European real estate is again in the crosshairs of investors,' explained Martin Towns, Global Head of Real Estate. 'New capital is coming in from Asia and the Middle East, while European capital is now being invested on the continent, partly due to the uncertain situation in the US.

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What makes Europe and the UK more attractive to foreign investors are several elements: valuations have stabilised at low levels after falling over the last two years; rents continue to rise in many markets and sectors; many European countries are investing in infrastructure, security and defence under the banner of autonomy; inflation has subsided and interest rates have fallen with prospects for further adjustments, especially in the UK.

"Another factor is that there has been little construction over the past few years, so there is a big shortage of new supply, and not just in the office sector," Towns said. "The debt markets are more favourable, it is easier to borrow, so we expect capital appreciation and an increase in buying and selling this year.

The recovery will be there but it will not be spectacular, he warned, because the economic environment remains rather weak: 'For a more sustained recovery we need more convincing GDP growth, but the important thing is that we have passed the low point and are on the way up'. An interesting element of the current phase, according to the M&G experts, is that the European market offers opportunities in different sectors and for different strategies, from core to value-add to opportunistic.

"The market has already recovered about a hundred billion in 2025 from the low point due to Covid and will continue to recover, as will valuations, which were down 19-20% in 2023 and 2024," explained Marc Reijnen, head of Europe real estate at M&G. Investor interest is across the board, and uncertainty about the impact of US tariffs may also play into European real estate'.

Looking at the sectors, according to M&G the first one remains residential, where there is a shortage of supply in all countries and in all market segments, from family flats to student residences to co-living to residences for the elderly. This is followed by logistics, although it is a mature market in countries such as the Netherlands and the UK, because new opportunities are emerging with the expansion of the defence and security sector.

The retail sector, long shunned by investors, is experiencing a revival, starting with large-scale distribution warehouses and also covering shopping centres. In fourth place are offices, especially if they are modern and in areas easily accessible by public transport. The negative impact post-Covid is over, Towns said: "We were one of the first to return to investing in office space and it has worked well for us.

In fifth place but on the rise is the hospitality sector, especially luxury hotels, which are in high demand among investors, as the expectation is that international tourism will continue to grow and Europe will remain a key destination.

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